Bitcoin Price Soars in 2023, Approaching $45,000 Mark, with Only Seven Days Left Until Christmas. The following is a reader’s statistical analysis: During this period each year, does the price of BTC mostly rise or fall?
(Prior summary:
SEC is in a hurry! Requires 13 Bitcoin spot ETF merchants to complete modifications “before the end of the year,” BlackRock and three others have already submitted.)
(Background supplement:
Survey: Nearly 80% of “Wall Street financial advisors” anticipate the emergence of Bitcoin spot ETFs, with half of them holding BTC.)
Today is Christmas Day (12/25), and data indicates that the price of Bitcoin has risen by nearly 160% over the past year. In the final seven days of 2023, will BTC continue to surge due to the potential approval of spot ETFs in January next year, the halving narrative, and expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, greatly anticipated by investors.
Further reading:
Bitcoin becomes the “second-best performing asset globally” in 2023! Nvidia surges 241% surpassing BTC.
Reviewing the market trends during Christmas from 2017 to 2022.
However, we know that Europe and the United States generally close during the Christmas holiday, resulting in reduced liquidity and investors potentially deciding to take profits due to the holidays. Therefore, the market is also concerned that Bitcoin may face some degree of pullback.
The following chart summarizes the market trends of Bitcoin during the Christmas period from 2017 to 2022. (For ease of calculation, the prices within the first seven days starting from Christmas are used for calculation.)
2022: Decreased by 2.7%
2021: Decreased by 11.9%
2020: Increased by 22.3%
2019: Decreased by 1.1%
2018: Decreased by 5.3%
2017: Increased by 4.1%
Based on the above data, it can be seen that since 2017, the probability of Bitcoin’s price declining within the first seven days starting from Christmas exceeds 66%, indicating that the market sentiment for buying may not be as strong.
However, each year’s circumstances are different, and historical data cannot accurately determine market trends. Whether Bitcoin can reach new highs this week in 2023, driven by potential positive factors such as spot ETFs and the halving narrative, remains to be observed over time.
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