Facing the emergence of Bitcoin selling pressure, Glassnode’s latest weekly report pointed out that long-term holders have realized profits of $2.02 billion per day, reaching a historical high. They have sold approximately 507,000 BTC since September. Analysis of URPD shows that $88,000 may become a testing area for a pullback.
Since Trump won the US election on November 8, Bitcoin has continued to push towards the $100,000 mark, reaching a high of over $99,500 on November 23. The accumulated increase in the past month has reached 37.6%.
However, since last weekend, Bitcoin has started to show the most significant pullback since Trump’s election. It has been falling from around $99,000, reaching a low of $90,791 this morning, a pullback of over 8.8% compared to the high point of around $99,600 on the 22nd.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin has slightly rebounded and is currently trading at $93,099, with a narrowed decrease of 1.78% in the past 24 hours.
LTH’s daily realized profits reach a record high of $2 billion
In the face of the emergence of Bitcoin selling pressure, Glassnode’s latest weekly report analyzed that since reaching the peak supply of long-term holders (LTH) in September, these investors have now reduced their holdings by 507,000 BTC (approximately $46.64 billion). Although this is lower than the 934,000 BTC selling pressure during the rebound period in March, the scale is still considerable.
In addition, long-term holders are currently distributing approximately 0.27% of profits per day, which is a relatively high proportion. Only 177 trading days have had a higher distribution rate, surpassing the level in March this year.
In terms of realized profits, long-term holders are currently selling $2.02 billion per day, reaching a historical high. This indicates that the market needs strong demand to absorb this excess supply, and this process may take some time to accumulate.
Seller risk ratio lower than historical peak
In order to evaluate whether there are enough buyers to absorb the supply, Glassnode uses the seller risk ratio to indicate that the current ratio is at a higher level (close to the blue line in the figure below), indicating significant profit realization within the current price range.
However, this ratio is still far below the previous peak, indicating that even under similar relative distribution pressures, previous bull markets saw sufficient demand to absorb the supply.
The seller risk ratio is used to evaluate investors’ selling behavior by analyzing the proportion of realized profits or losses with the asset’s Realized Cap.
High ratio (blue line): Investors sell with high profits or losses, usually after significant price fluctuations, and the market needs time to rebalance.
Low ratio (red line): Most transactions are close to the cost price, the market enters a balanced state, volatility is lower, and it may indicate that the consumption of profits and losses is approaching the end.
Over 1-year-old coins have not been significantly sold
Furthermore, when evaluating the composition of expenditure, Glassnode points out that most of the selling pressure comes from Bitcoin aged between 6 months and 1 year. This highlights that coins held for more than 1 year have not been significantly sold, and higher prices are needed to attract the liquidation of these tokens.
According to Glassnode’s statistics, tokens with a maturity of 6 months to 1 year account for the majority of current selling pressure, reaching a proportion of 35.3%.
6 months-1 year realized profits: $12.6 billion
1-2 years realized profits: $7.2 billion
2-3 years realized profits: $4.8 billion
3-5 years realized profits: $6.3 billion
5+ years realized profits: $4.8 billion
$88,000 is a key level for retesting
In order to evaluate the sustainability of this upward trend, Glassnode compares the structure of the current unrealized profit distribution (URPD) with the high point in March 2024. The institution states that in March 2024, after months of price increases driven by ETF listings, multiple turnovers were completed within the range of $40,000 to $73,000. During the following seven months of consolidation, this area became one of the most influential supply zones in history, and the accumulated supply formed crucial support, laying the foundation for this market rally.
The recent market rally has been very rapid, with little Bitcoin trading volume between $76,000 and $88,000. This may become a testing area for market pullbacks. Price discovery is a process that often requires rebounds, corrections, and consolidations to confirm new price ranges and find new equilibrium points.