Bitcoin briefly surged past $93,000 last night, fueling market expectations for a year-end push towards the $100,000 milestone. From the perspective of the options market, the notional value of Bitcoin options expiring on December 27 stands at $11.8 billion, with call options significantly outweighing put options. If Bitcoin’s price remains between $90,000 and $100,000 by then, bulls could potentially profit up to $4.45 billion.
(Previous context: Is $90,000 Not the Top? Glassnode: Bitcoin’s Profit-Taking Pressure Lower Than Last Peak, Room for Further Gains Still Exists)
(Background supplement: Trump Nominates Bitcoin Advocate Pete Hegseth as Defense Secretary, Pentagon to Implement BTC Strategy?)
On the evening of the 13th, the U.S. released CPI data in line with expectations, adding momentum to the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin briefly soared to $93,477.11, surging over $7,000 within the day. Although it has since retreated to around $90,000, investors are increasingly hopeful that Bitcoin will break through the $100,000 barrier before the end of the year.
$11.8 Billion in Bitcoin Options Expiring on 12/27
From the perspective of the options market, the open interest (OI) of options contracts expiring on December 27 reaches $11.8 billion, with call options accounting for $7.9 billion and put options for $3.92 billion. Assuming the OI remains unchanged, this substantial amount of capital could have a significant impact on the market at expiration.
Analyst Marcel Pechman analyzed the potential profit differentials between call and put options across various price ranges to assess the strength of market sentiment. He concluded that because call OI significantly exceeds put OI, and current data shows bulls in a strong position, this indicates that Bitcoin may still have upward momentum from the end of the year into early 2025.
Marcel Pechman set several possible price ranges based on Bitcoin’s current price trend:
– If Bitcoin’s price is between $72,000 and $75,000: The total value of call options is $1.4 billion, while put options are valued at $470 million, giving a potential profit differential of $930 million.
– If the price is between $75,000 and $80,000: The notional value of call options is $1.85 billion, while put options are $270 million, resulting in a call advantage of $1.58 billion.
– If the price is between $80,000 and $85,000: The notional value of call options reaches $2.74 billion, with put options at $130 million, expanding the call advantage to $2.61 billion.
– If the price is between $85,000 and $90,000: The total value of call options is $3.38 billion, while put options are only $96 million, giving a call advantage of $3.28 billion.
– If the price is between $90,000 and $100,000: The total value of call options climbs to $4.52 billion, with put options at just $74 million, yielding a call advantage of $4.45 billion.
As Bitcoin’s price rises, the potential profits from call options continue to increase, while the influence of put options gradually diminishes.
In summary, the logic of this analysis lies in observing the imbalance in OI of options contracts to infer market sentiment. If prices remain high, bullish forces will profit more; to avoid this, bearish forces need to push down Bitcoin’s price.
Polymarket Bets on Breakthrough Probability at 45%
Additionally, data from Polymarket, an on-chain prediction market that accurately predicted Trump’s election as president, indicates that the market bet on Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by November once exceeded 50% but has now dropped to 45%.
The market involves $689,000 in real funds, making it a valuable reference.
