Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino stated today that quantum computing is still far from being able to crack Bitcoin encryption. However, he believes that quantum computing will eventually be able to decrypt “lost wallets” containing Bitcoin and make them re-circulate, including the Bitcoin held in Satoshi Nakamoto’s wallet.
(Foreword: Bitcoin creator Adam Back: Quantum computing will not pose a threat to BTC for several decades, it is not difficult to build a quantum-resistant network)
(Background information: Physicists: Quantum computers will be able to crack Bitcoin private keys in five years, will upgrading BTC require a complete shutdown?)
The question of whether quantum computing will crack Bitcoin has sparked a heated debate within the Bitcoin community. Some technical experts believe that Bitcoin’s encryption algorithm will soon be cracked by quantum computing, allowing hackers to easily steal Bitcoin from people’s wallets. However, there are also experts who believe that current quantum computing technology is not yet sufficient to pose a threat to Bitcoin.
Short-term threat to Bitcoin from quantum computing is unlikely
Regarding the threat of quantum computing, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino shared his views today. He believes that with the development of quantum computing technology, lost Bitcoin wallets will eventually be cracked and re-enter the market circulation. However, this is still a distant future:
This is my prediction.
The distance between quantum computing and a substantial risk to Bitcoin encryption is still very far.
Before quantum computing poses a serious threat, Bitcoin will introduce quantum-resistant addresses.
Everyone who is still alive and has access to their wallets will transfer their Bitcoin to new quantum-resistant addresses.
But any Bitcoin stored in lost wallets (including Satoshi Nakamoto’s Bitcoin if he is no longer alive) will be cracked and re-circulated.
Prediction.
Quantum computing is still very far from any meaningful risk of breaking Bitcoin cryptography.
Quantum-resistant addresses will eventually be added to Bitcoin before there is any serious threat.
All people alive (and that have access to their wallets) will move…
— Paolo Ardoino (@paoloardoino)February 8, 2025
Similar to Paolo Ardoino’s viewpoint, well-known venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya issued a warning last December that quantum computing will pose a risk to first-generation encryption technology. The specific timing is still unclear, and this is not something that will happen in the short term. However, if he were a significant Bitcoin holder, he would consider this possibility and prepare in advance.
Freezing the Bitcoin held by Satoshi Nakamoto?
However, if the threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin becomes a reality, the 1 million Bitcoins held by Satoshi Nakamoto will be at risk. Emin Gün Sirer, the founder and CEO of Ava Labs, recently analyzed that the Bitcoin held by Satoshi Nakamoto may be vulnerable to future attacks due to the use of the early P2PK format. Attackers may have ample time to decrypt it. To prevent this risk, it is suggested that the Bitcoin community consider freezing the Bitcoin held by Satoshi Nakamoto.
P2PK is an early payment format for Bitcoin, characterized by directly exposing the public key. In traditional computing, it is almost impossible to derive the private key from the public key. However, the development of quantum computers may change this. Quantum computing can use the Shor algorithm to derive the private key from the public key and thus gain access to the Bitcoin in the corresponding address.
In contrast, modern Bitcoin addresses most commonly use the “Pay-to-Public-Key-Hash (P2PKH)” format, which only exposes the hashed public key and provides relatively effective defense against quantum attacks. Therefore, the early P2PK addresses are considered the most vulnerable part of the Bitcoin ecosystem.
