Senior trader Peter Brandt recently stated in his blog post that Bitcoin has reached its peak in the current bull market cycle and predicted that it could drop to over $30,000 or even lower.
Peter Brandt, a senior trader who has published several bestselling financial books and has over 720,000 followers on X, recently stated in his blog post that Bitcoin has reached its peak in the current bull market cycle and predicted that it could drop to over $30,000 or even lower.
Peter Brandt believes that a significant drop in Bitcoin in the long term would be a good thing. Bitcoin has gone through four bull market cycles, and the current one is the fifth. According to Peter Brandt’s article, the prediction of Bitcoin’s decline is based on the phenomenon of exponential decay, which he observed from the four previous Bitcoin bull market cycles.
Based on data from the past four bull market cycles, Peter Brandt points out that approximately 80% of the growth momentum dissipates in each market cycle:
– The scale of the 2011-2013 period is approximately 20% of the 2009-2011 period.
– The scale of the 2015-2017 period is approximately 20% of the 2011-2013 period.
– The scale of the 2018-2021 period is approximately 20% of the 2015-2017 period.
In other words, each successful bull market cycle sees an 80% dissipation of index energy, indicating that the current bull market cycle will have approximately 4.5 times the index growth (approximately 440% based on a 20% increase in the 2018-2021 cycle, which was 22 times the previous cycle). Since the low point of this cycle is $15,473, which means the current cycle has already reached 4.5 times the growth (current market price is approximately $72,500). However, the senior analyst does not dare to assert that Bitcoin has already reached the peak of the current bull market, especially considering that BTC has just undergone halving. Therefore, he believes there is a 25% possibility that Bitcoin has already peaked.
If Bitcoin has indeed reached its peak, Peter Brandt predicts that the price of Bitcoin could drop to around $30,000, the low point of 2021. However, from a technical analysis perspective, such a decline could be the most favorable in the long term. If you want to see examples of this chart structure, you can refer to the gold price chart from August 2020 to March 2024.
Another important difference in this bull market compared to previous ones is that the current US interest rate (5.5%) is the highest since the birth of Bitcoin. In contrast, the highest interest rate during the previous three bull markets did not exceed 2.5%. This could bring significant pressure on market funds.
Currently, according to the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate dot plot, if the interest rate is to be reduced to 2.5%, it may not happen until after 2026.
However, one difference between this and previous cycles is that the US has passed a spot ETF, and coupled with the recent halving… We will continue to observe what impact this different background will have on Bitcoin.