TON’s ecosystem has recently developed rapidly, with TON’s price continuously rising, making it the ninth largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. Many people believe that TON could become the next SOL or ETH. However, research firm Blockworks Research has issued a warning today, stating that the market may be overestimating the potential of TON and Telegram.
Blockworks Research’s report highlights several concerns regarding TON. Firstly, they argue that the narrative surrounding Telegram’s global influence, with approximately 900 million monthly active users (MAU), exaggerates the potential user base for TON. When looking at daily active users (DAU), Telegram only has around 55 million to 200 million, with a DAU/MAU ratio of only 15%. This is much lower than mainstream social media applications such as Facebook (69%), WeChat (53%), and Twitter (45%), indicating lower market penetration and monetization capabilities than expected.
Furthermore, Blockworks Research believes that TON’s ecosystem lacks EVM compatibility, and its blockchain-native programming language, FunC, faces challenges. The report points out that Solidity, the most popular smart contract programming language in the blockchain space, is widely used like Javascript, while Rust, the programming language used by Solana, may not be as widely adopted but has passionate supporters.
Blockworks Research further analyzes that a significant part of TON’s growth narrative is based on the belief that Telegram could become the next WeChat. However, WeChat has avoided competition in the US market and only serves the single homogeneous market of China.
Considering these multiple concerns, Blockworks Research also highlights the risk of TON’s fully diluted valuation (FDV). TON’s FDV is 8.6 times its ecosystem DEX annual trading volume, ranking it at the top among a series of public chains. However, it should be noted that many transactions within the TON ecosystem may not be included in the ecosystem DEX. Additionally, TON’s FDV is 927 times its network annual fees, higher than the median of a series of public chains, posing risks for TON investors.