Can Google Search Trends Really Predict Bitcoin Trends Analyzing Historical Bull and Bear Markets

Google Trends: Is Bitcoin Search Volume Really Accurate for Market Trends Analysis?
Investors often use public interest as an indicator of market sentiment, with Google Trends data being an important reference. This data ranges from 0 to 100, measuring the “relative” search popularity of a specific keyword at a specific time and place.
The closer the value is to 100, the higher the search popularity of the keyword and the hotter the market sentiment; conversely, the closer the value is to 0, the more tepid the market sentiment. This article will use Google Trends data to compare the current market with the attention during the 2021 bull market.
Search volume for Bitcoin after reaching new highs this year is similar to the 2021 bull market.
Bitcoin prices had two peaks in 2021, reaching $64,800 in mid-April and $69,000 in mid-November, and then set a new high of $73,800 in March this year after about 2 years and 3 months.
From the beginning of 2021 to the present, the data performance of BTC and bitcoin on Google Trends is as follows:
For BTC, during the double peak period of the 2021 bull market, the Google Trends data values reached 80 and 44 respectively. When Bitcoin reached a new high this year, it reached 95, and the current data is 40.
For bitcoin, the data values during the 2021 double peaks were 77 and 38, while this year’s new high and current values were 51 and 21 respectively.
Further observation of BTC Price on Google Trends reveals that during the double peak of the 2021 bull market, the data values were 56 and 30, while the data hit 100 when Bitcoin reached a new high in March this year, and it currently stands at 35.
This means that the continuous new highs during the bull market do not necessarily lead to the search popularity hitting new highs again. In other words, judging whether Bitcoin prices have peaked based solely on a decline in search popularity may not be a highly reliable basis.
The search volume for the Bitcoin spot ETF is only 1.
On the other hand, the successful listing of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF has been a major driver of this year’s Bitcoin new high. According to Google Trends data, “Spot Bitcoin ETF” reached a peak of 100 within 11 days of listing, but the popularity then dropped significantly, currently standing at 1.
However, since the Bitcoin spot ETF resumed net inflows on May 13, the search popularity has risen to 48, reflecting ongoing market interest in the Bitcoin spot ETF.
In a bull market, high search popularity usually drives prices up, indicating increased attention and investment activity. However, in other scenarios, such as market uncertainty or significant declines, search popularity may increase, and during multiple new high periods, search popularity may also decrease. Therefore, investors looking for a comprehensive market analysis need to consider other market indicators and economic factors.