Wall Street’s top investment bank, Bernstein, has stated that large institutions are expected to start investing in Bitcoin spot ETFs in Q3 or Q4 of this year. This influx of funds will bring significant capital to the ETF market and ultimately drive up the price of Bitcoin further. Therefore, the current price should be considered a relatively low point in this bull market.
Background:
Bitcoin funding rates have decreased, but open interest remains high. Matrixport believes that after a brief decline, Bitcoin is poised to reach new highs.
Bernstein: Large institutions expected to enter Bitcoin spot ETF in the second half of the year.
Where is the bottom to buy?
This bull market is still in its early stages.
After reaching a peak of $65,722 on the afternoon of the 19th, Bitcoin experienced another round of oscillating decline. In the early morning of the 20th, it dropped to a low of $64,666 before rebounding. At the time of writing, it is trading at $65,109, holding the $65,000 level.
On the other hand, the performance of the US Bitcoin spot ETF market is not favorable. According to Sosovalue data, as of June 18th, there has been a net outflow of funds for the fourth consecutive day.
In a report released on Tuesday, Bernstein, a well-known Wall Street investment bank, also pointed out that with the release of the recent 13F institutional holdings report, analysts believe that the funds for Bitcoin spot ETFs are still mainly from retail investors, with institutional investors accounting for only 22% of the total. Furthermore, 36% of institutional participation is mainly through “cash and carry arbitrage,” which involves buying one Bitcoin and simultaneously shorting one Bitcoin in the futures market to profit from the price difference, rather than purely being bullish on Bitcoin.
However, Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra also presented a positive factor, stating that large brokerage firms and private banks will officially include Bitcoin spot ETFs in their portfolios in the third or fourth quarter of this year. Additionally, new financial accounting standards will also stimulate corporate demand for Bitcoin.
Where is the bottom to buy?
Given this, although Bitcoin spot ETFs have experienced four consecutive days of net outflows recently, Bernstein still expects that the inflow of funds will accelerate again soon. Investors should currently focus on buying opportunities at the low point of $60,000 and the high point of $50,000.
This bull market is still in its early stages.
Last week, Bernstein raised its target price for Bitcoin from $150,000 to $200,000 by the end of 2025, citing the significant demand from Bitcoin spot ETFs and the reduced miner output after halving. They also ultimately predict that Bitcoin will reach an unprecedented $500,000 by 2029 and touch the milestone of $1 million in 2033. In their report on Tuesday, Bernstein not only reiterated these predictions but also added that Bitcoin’s current price range of $60,000 to $70,000 is still considered low in this bull market. Due to the potential buying demand from institutions, this bull market may still be in its early stages.