With less than 2 days remaining until the activation of Bitcoin’s fourth halving, Google Trends data shows that search volume for “Bitcoin halving” has reached an all-time high. It is estimated that search interest this month will be more than twice as high as during the last Bitcoin halving in 2020.
As the fourth halving approaches, Google Trends data reveals that search volume for “Bitcoin halving” has reached an all-time high. It is estimated that search interest this month will reach 100, which is more than double the peak of 36 during the last halving in 2020.
In terms of search interest by country, Nigeria, the Netherlands, Cyprus, Switzerland, and Slovenia are the top 5 countries most interested in Bitcoin halving, with search interests reaching 100, 92, 77, 77, and 77, respectively. Taiwan, on the other hand, only has a search interest of 3, ranking 65th globally.
Bitcoin has experienced a significant increase in value since the beginning of this year, reaching a historical high of over $73,600 in March. With Bitcoin’s strong performance, interest in the halving has reached record levels. However, after reaching a new high in March, Bitcoin has gradually declined and dropped below $60,000 this morning, a decrease of nearly 20% from its peak.
Some market observers have recently been bearish on Bitcoin’s future. 10x Research predicts that Bitcoin miners may sell $5 billion worth of Bitcoin after the halving to cope with increasing mining difficulty and financial needs. This selling pressure may continue for four to six months, resulting in Bitcoin entering a consolidation phase in the coming months.
However, historically, Bitcoin has experienced significant price increases after each halving:
– After the first halving, Bitcoin reached a high of $1,135, with a 9,358% increase, taking 371 days from the halving day to reach the peak.
– After the second halving, Bitcoin reached a high of $19,640, with a 2,921% increase, taking 525 days from the halving day to reach the peak.
– After the third halving, Bitcoin reached a high of $69,045, with a 700% increase, taking 545 days from the halving day to reach the peak.
Investment research firm Bernstein released a research report on Wednesday, forecasting that after the fourth halving, with the completion of the adjustment in network mining power and the resumption of inflow of funds into Bitcoin spot ETFs, the bullish trend of Bitcoin will resume. By 2025, Bitcoin is expected to reach a cycle high of $150,000.
Bernstein analysts pointed out that the halving of mining rewards itself will not cause Bitcoin to rise without new demand. After the halving, miners will receive fewer block rewards, resulting in a decrease in sellable Bitcoin. However, potential selling pressure has significantly decreased over time.
According to Bernstein, catalysts on the demand side usually emerge after the halving. In the 2020/21 halving cycle, the catalysts were the liquidity during the outbreak of the pandemic and the purchases of Bitcoin by companies such as Tesla, Square, and MicroStrategy. This halving cycle’s demand will be driven by the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs and major global asset management companies.