Bitcoin Halving to Take Place on April 20th, the Fourth Halving in Bitcoin History, but Possibly the First Experience for Many Investors. This Article Will Summarize the Previous Bitcoin Halving Events and Predict the Performance After This Halving.
(Previous Summary:
Bitcoin’s Cost May Decrease by 51,000 After Halving? Bitwise Analyzes Historical Trends: Triple-Digit Increase in One Year, Ignoring Short-Term Volatility)
(Background Supplement:
Bitcoin Halving Increases Costs! Stock Prices of American Mining Companies Plummet by 30% in a Month, Traders Invest $200 Million in Bearish Bets)
Table of Contents:
Review of Previous Three Bitcoin Halvings
Based on the Previous Three Halvings, Predicting Bitcoin’s Peak Will Exceed $160,000
Bull Market May Not Follow the Plan
Bitcoin Halving will take place in two days (4/20). This is the fourth halving in Bitcoin history. Experienced cryptocurrency investors may be accustomed to halving events, but for many investors who entered the market after the NFT and meme crazes, this will be their first experience. This article will summarize the previous Bitcoin halvings and predict the performance after this halving.
Before analyzing the data, let’s take a look at the time and price of each Bitcoin halving. Bitcoin halving occurs every four years, and the specific information is as follows:
– First halving on November 28, 2012: Block reward reduced to 25 bitcoins, Bitcoin price on the halving day was $12.
– Second halving on July 9, 2016: Block reward reduced to 12.5 bitcoins, Bitcoin price on the halving day was $650.
– Third halving on May 12, 2020: Block reward reduced to 6.25 bitcoins, Bitcoin price on the halving day was $8,626.
At the same time, we have compiled the peak prices after each halving, the percentage increase from the halving day to the peak, and the number of days from the halving day to the peak:
– After the first halving, Bitcoin reached a peak of $1,135, with a 9,358% increase, taking 371 days from the halving day to the peak.
– After the second halving, Bitcoin reached a peak of $19,640, with a 2,921% increase, taking 525 days from the halving day to the peak.
– After the third halving, Bitcoin reached a peak of $69,045, with a 700% increase, taking 545 days from the halving day to the peak.
Based on historical records, the percentage increase from the halving day to the peak of Bitcoin ranges from 700% to 9,358%, with an average increase of 4,326%. The number of days ranges from 371 days to 545 days, with an average of 480 days. If the fourth halving follows the expected trend, based on the average number of days, the peak of Bitcoin after the halving may fall around August 13, 2025.
Judging from the gradually decreasing price increases after the previous three halvings, it is highly likely that the price increase from the fourth halving to the peak will not exceed 700% of the previous increase. If we use the price increase from the previous three halvings as a reference, the peak of Bitcoin after the fourth halving would reach $162,946.
However, the peak after the halving may not necessarily reach the expected level, as external factors can also lead to unforeseen changes, such as the recent conflict in the Middle East and the indication from the U.S. Federal Reserve that interest rates will not be lowered in the short term.
In addition, according to the interest rate chart from the U.S. Federal Reserve, the current rate (5.5%) is the highest since the birth of Bitcoin, far surpassing the rates during the previous three halvings (0.25, 0.5, 0.25). Therefore, in the context of high interest rates, the bull market for Bitcoin may be delayed.
Source: TradingView
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