Facing the upcoming halving, will there be a repeat of the halving market or will it trigger a new narrative? Bulls and bears are engaged in fierce competition. This article is sourced from Tide Capital and compiled and written by ChainCatcher.
Bitcoin: About to complete its 4th halving, reducing annual selling pressure by $10 billion
Bitcoin: In the history of 3 halvings, a significant increase was achieved in the year following the halving
Bitcoin: Spot ETF receives accelerated funding inflows, contributing to continuous rise in Bitcoin
Rune: Bitcoin’s native innovation, expected to initiate the third wave of enthusiasm during the halving
Runestone: Protocol expected to go live during the halving, with the potential to become a core asset
Meme: Blue-chip NFT mfers coin, from 0 to $200 million market value in 12 hours
At Bitcoin block height #837188, with 20 days left until the fourth halving, Bitcoin reached the $70,000 mark on this station. The market sentiment has undergone subtle changes, and bulls and bears are engaged in fierce competition in the face of the upcoming halving.
Tide Capital released its latest research report titled “6 Big Ideas You Need to Know About Bitcoin Halving” on its official website, explaining the six most important clues and judgments that drive Bitcoin prices. This article excerpted part of the research report. Please log in to the Tide Capital official website to download the full version of the research report.
Bitcoin will complete its 4th halving on April 18, 2024. The block reward will be reduced from 6.25 Bitcoin to 3.125 Bitcoin, further reducing Bitcoin’s output and selling pressure. Before the halving, Bitcoin’s annual output is approximately 330,000, which, calculated at a price of $65,000, would bring more than $20 billion in selling pressure to the market. After the halving, Bitcoin’s annual selling pressure will also be reduced by half, equivalent to a reduction of $10 billion, effectively alleviating the selling pressure on Bitcoin.
Bitcoin has experienced three halvings in its history, which took place in November 2012, July 2016, and May 2020. In each case, a significant increase occurred in the year following the halving. With less than 30 days left until the fourth halving, the market is beginning to evaluate the impact of the halving, and there is a high probability of Bitcoin continuing to oscillate and rise.
On January 10, BTC spot ETF was approved, resulting in billions of dollars of off-exchange capital inflow, which helped drive the continuous rise of Bitcoin. In previous bull markets, BTC usually experienced multiple pullbacks of more than 20%. However, in this round of bull market, there have been few pullbacks with small amplitudes, thanks to the continuous influx of off-exchange capital.
Referring to gold ETF, after the first gold ETF was launched, gold entered a bull market for nearly 10 years, with an increase of over 400%. Compared to gold, Bitcoin has superior characteristics as a store of value, including safer storage, convenient transactions, and faster transfers. Currently, the market value of gold is $14.5 trillion, while Bitcoin’s market value is only $1.3 trillion, leaving ten times more room for Bitcoin compared to gold. The launch of a Bitcoin ETF is more favored than the gold ETF at the time, with a much faster influx of funds.
In January 2023, Bitcoin developer Casey Rodarmor released the Ordinals protocol, which allows users to embed data into the Bitcoin blockchain, thereby creating NFTs and tokenized assets on Bitcoin, opening up new possibilities for the Bitcoin ecosystem. Since its launch, Ordinals has seen over 60 million total engravings.
Runes experienced two waves of enthusiasm. The first wave began in April 2023, with the leading token ORDI rising from $0.005 to $28, achieving a 5,000-fold increase in just two months. The second wave began in October 2023, with ORDI rising from $3 to $96. OKX and Binance successively launched the Runes trading market, driving the rise of more Runes assets. Runes is an innovative native of the Bitcoin ecosystem, bringing more users and developers to the Bitcoin community, and various new applications and gameplay are constantly emerging. When Bitcoin undergoes the next halving, market attention will once again return to the Bitcoin ecosystem, and Runes will initiate the third wave of enthusiasm.
The Runes Protocol, proposed by Casey Rodarmor, the founder of Ordinals, is an improved and upgraded version of the BRC-20 protocol. It aims to provide an efficient, highly compatible, and highly scalable framework for issuing and managing Bitcoin assets. It is expected to go live during the Bitcoin halving, making it one of the mainstream concepts in the halving speculation.
Rune Stone, launched by Leonidas, the founder of Ord.io browser, completed its initial distribution by airdropping NFTs to 112,383 Bitcoin addresses, and its current market value exceeds $300 million. Rune Stone has become a representative asset of the Runes Protocol, and more and more projects are starting to airdrop to Rune Stone holders. Rune Stone has great potential for future applications and gameplay. Additionally, after the launch of the Runes Protocol, users holding Rune Stone can convert it into fungible tokens. In summary, Rune Stone has the narrative of “Runes Protocol” + “Airdropped Assets” + “Coin Expectations” and is expected to become a core asset in the Bitcoin halving market.
On March 30, the founder of the blue-chip NFT project mfers, sartoshi, launched the token mfercoin. In the whitepaper, it is stated that mfercoin is a meme coin with no intrinsic value, no profit expectations, and no specified use cases. 80% of the tokens were injected into the liquidity pool, and the remaining 20% were airdropped to the mfers community. Mfers, an NFT project launched in 2021, caused a craze in the crypto community and is a well-known blue-chip NFT project. After the launch of mfercoin, it achieved a market value of $200 million within 12 hours, thanks to the community’s spontaneous support and promotion. As the mfers community puts it, 1$mfer=1$mfer.
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