In the past Bitcoin halving cycles, there has often been a significant pullback followed by a surge. Many people choose to sell their Bitcoin before the halving and then buy back during the post-halving rally. However, this article suggests that there is no need to sell before the halving and that you can prepare for a massive surge. This article is sourced from DUO NINE⚡YCC and compiled, translated, and written by Deep Tide.
(Teaser:
BTC halving is approaching, and we take stock of the top 5 project ecosystems: Merlin, Stacks, B2, BounceBit..)
(Background:
Rich Dad: Will buy 10 Bitcoins in April, and the halving will help BTC reach $100,000 in September.)
Trends are your friends, and Bitcoin is your best friend in the cryptocurrency casino.
With less than a month left until the next Bitcoin halving, the recent pullback in Bitcoin may try to scare you. Whales know this game very well, and they hope you will sell your tokens during the surge.
Don’t fall for it! Hold firm and don’t let them intimidate you.
As the bull market continues, more people will try to acquire the low-priced tokens you hold. You still have about a year to make money. Don’t sell too early!
The countdown to the halving has begun. Everyone is preparing for a massive post-halving surge. Those who sell before April 20, 2024, are easily shaken. You should never sell before the halving. What you should do is prepare for the massive upward trend!
During the previous downturn, I bought more altcoins, and some of them have already risen by over 50%!
Based on past cycles, Bitcoin generally rises for about a year and a half after the halving.
Surprisingly, this cycle saw Bitcoin break the old all-time high before the halving for the first time! I have written a lot about this in previous posts.
Click here to read, as it can help you plan your exit strategy.
However, this puts us in a dilemma…
Where should we start for the upcoming massive surge?
Bitcoin ETF approved in January 2024?
Breaking $69,000 (old all-time high) in early March 2024?
The halving in April 2024?
This is important because each of these assumptions will affect when you should take profits and exit this market. One thing is certain: this cycle is different and accelerating!
Take a look at the chart below. Notice how the time between ATH (all-time high) and ATH breakthrough has shortened. 1,176 days, then 1,085 days, and most recently, 840 days. The latter is the shortest because BTC set a new record shortly after the ETF was approved and before the halving!
Bitcoin always reaches its peak within 10 to 11 months after breaking the old all-time high. Therefore, I tend to set our starting point as breaking $69,000 in March 2024 and calculate 10 months from there. If things stay the same, this will result in Bitcoin reaching its peak between December 2024 and January 2025.
Waiting a year and a half after the halving in April 2024 may not be a wise bet. If this cycle maintains this pace, I expect we will enter a bear market by the summer or fall of 2025. That’s because the price is moving faster, not slower!
The most hopeful prediction is shown in the chart below, using the 2016-2017 surge as a baseline (red line). Once the current price deviates from this baseline, we will know if this cycle is faster or slower. So far, our speed is similar to or faster than before, depending on how the March and April candlestick charts close. The exit period on the chart is between October 2024 and March 2025. This is the target using our assumptions above.
There will be adjustments in the massive surge. Take advantage of these opportunities to readjust your investment portfolio and maximize your position in strong-performing tokens, just as I have done in the past two weeks.
I also looked at the data and compared it to the past two bull markets, which showed that Bitcoin has averaged a 21% pullback in this bull market so far.
2016-2017 bull market: Average pullback of -37%
2020-2021 bull market: Average pullback of -33%
2023-2024 bull market: Average pullback of 21% so far
If Bitcoin drops 20%, it is an opportunity to buy immediately, at least for the next few months. By the end of 2024, I won’t take the risk of buying on dips anymore. Also, note that as time goes on, the magnitude of bear market adjustments in each cycle is decreasing:
2018-2019 bear market: 84% pullback
2021-2022 bear market: 77% pullback
2025-2026 bear market: How much will the pullback be???
Another way to know if you are taking profits at the right time is to see if Coinbase sets a new record in trading volume. If quarterly trading volume exceeds $150 billion, you are exiting at the right time. The data in the chart below shows that the current trading volume is gradually increasing.
Lastly, don’t be fooled by whales! They will do everything they can to scare you and acquire the Bitcoins you sell, whether during the correction period or the next bear market. Never lose faith in Bitcoin; it has proven everyone wrong over the past 15 years.
Trends are your friends, and Bitcoin is your best friend in the cryptocurrency casino.
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The Ultimate Guide to the 2024 Bitcoin Halving: When? What should I pay attention to? Impact on price and miners..
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