USDe, a stablecoin led by Arthur Hayes, officially launched on February 19th. Currently, the annualized yield for staking USDe is as high as 33.3%, and it also allows users to earn Shards rewards, which may be used for future airdrops. The author believes that the value of these Shards is underestimated. So how did he come to this estimation? This article is sourced from a tweet by 0xYaro and compiled, translated, and written by Foresight News.
Introduction:
USDe Annualized Interest Rate 27%! Is Arthur Hayes’ USD Stablecoin a Ponzi Scheme?
Background:
Satoshi Nakamoto’s Dollar is Here! Arthur Hayes’ USDe Stablecoin Led the Way with Annualized Yield Exceeding 27%, Along with Ethena Airdrop and Interactive Tutorials.
Ethena Labs’ Shards is an underestimated “golden shovel,” and it is very wise for them to change “points” to “Shards.” That’s too cool.
I calculated the price of Ethena Shards and I feel that it is undervalued. In short, hurry up and buy YT USDe on Pendle.
Estimated Value of Each Shard:
Let’s first calculate how many “Shards” Ethena Labs is expected to issue. From February 19th to March 2nd, the event has already lasted for 12 days.
Currently, there are a total of 65.78 billion Shards, and nearly 4 billion Shards will be generated daily in the future. Joo provided an unofficial prediction that the inflation rate of Shards will decrease by 25% and 50% in the next 2 to 4 Epochs compared to the current rate.
Messari predicts that the Ethena Shards event will end on March 20th, leaving 18 days. If this information is accurate, we can estimate that the total number of Shards in the market is approximately 138 billion (65.78 billion + 4 billion * 18 days).
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Now let’s calculate the value of each Shard. A conservative approach is from top to bottom. Ethena is expected to have a valuation of 2 billion US dollars and plans to airdrop tokens equivalent to 5% of the total supply (approximately 100 million US dollars). This means that the implied value of each Shard is approximately 0.0007258 US dollars (100 million US dollars / 138 billion Shards).
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Looking from the bottom up, the current market valuation of Ethena Shards is relatively low. Currently, each YT USDe on Pendle is priced at 0.05 US dollars, and each YT USDe can generate 10 Shards per day. After 18 days, each YT USDe can accumulate 180 Shards. In other words, the current market prices 180 Shards at 0.05 US dollars, and the implied value of each Shard is 0.0002778 US dollars (0.05 US dollars / 180 Shards). If you buy YT USDe, it means there is still three times the speculation space for Shards.
Risks to Consider:
Before going all in on Ethena Labs’ Shard event, it is important to note the following risks:
The above calculations are based on my own reasonable estimation and may not completely match the actual situation.
Airdrops do not guarantee immediate liquidity and profits may take a long time to materialize.
There are other risks related to products, smart contracts, etc.
Now you can deposit USDT, USDC, DAI, GHO, crvUSD, mkUSD on the Ethena Labs website to exchange for USDe. You can earn Shards by providing liquidity, locking, or staking USDe. However, based on the above analysis, I believe that the best way to acquire Shards is to buy YT USDe on Pendle, which not only allows you to earn 181 times leveraged points but also receive 10 times Shards rewards from Ethena.
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