Bitcoin Halving Countdown: 64 Days Left! With the support of Bitcoin Spot ETF funds, can this bull market break historical highs? Bitfinex analysts point out that the next focus will be on the altcoin market.
(Previous Summary:
Bitcoin Halving Countdown: 100 Days Left! Reviewing the history of the past three halvings, will BTC definitely rise?)
(Background Supplement:
CZ talks about Bitcoin Halving: Past experience tells me that “one year after the reduction in production,” BTC will hit multiple historical highs)
Table of Contents:
Analyst: History of Halving Repeats
Altcoins to Experience a Breakout
Reviewing the Past Halving Trends
With continuous net inflow of Bitcoin Spot ETF, which has boosted the price of Bitcoin, the price has been fluctuating between $51,500 and $52,000 since it broke through $52,000 on the 15th. It is worth noting that another potential catalyst, the fourth halving, is expected to arrive in mid-April this year.
According to the latest data from Bitcoin Block Half, as of the deadline, there are only about 64 days left until the Bitcoin halving. At that time, the Bitcoin reward per block will decrease from the current 6.25 coins to 3.125 coins.
Bitcoin Halving Countdown | Source: Bitcoin Block Half
Regarding the recent strong market trend, Jag Kooner, the derivatives product manager at Bitfinex, stated in an interview with the media that the current market dynamics of Bitcoin resemble the rebound before previous halvings, indicating the repetition of historical trends.
Kooner explained that based on historical data, this type of market trend usually starts about eight weeks before the halving event. This market rebound may not only push the Bitcoin price beyond the previous cycle’s high point but also signify the resurgence of Bitcoin as a trillion-dollar asset, mainly due to the influx of funds brought by Bitcoin Spot ETF.
On the other hand, Kooner further pointed out that it is common for funds to flow into the altcoin market after Bitcoin reaches a significant high point during a bull market. This phenomenon indicates that investors seek other cryptocurrencies with greater potential for investment after Bitcoin reaches its peak.
The analyst added that considering the large number of different projects in the current cryptocurrency market, their strategy is to primarily invest in specific areas with potential. For example, they pay special attention to blockchain ecosystems like Solana and AI-based cryptocurrency projects, rather than evenly distributing investments in all altcoins.
Bitcoin halving can become the background narrative of a bull market due to the expected increase in scarcity, which is believed to help boost the price. However, according to statistics, past halvings usually do not immediately trigger a Bitcoin price surge but take several months to one and a half years to ferment:
First Halving: In 2012, about 12 months after the peak (November 2013), the price rose by 8450%.
Second Halving: In 2016, about 17 months after the peak (December 2017), the price rose by 290%.
Third Halving: In 2019, about 18 months after the peak (November 2021), the price rose by 560%.
Past Halving Trends | Source: X
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