People are becoming increasingly optimistic about the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF. Five key data points, including the upcoming Bitcoin halving and positive market sentiment, indicate that the cryptocurrency bull market began in 2023 and will continue into 2024. This article, titled “5 data points suggest a crypto bull market began in 2023 — What’s next for 2024,” is sourced from Cointelegraph and compiled, translated, and written by DeepTech.
Table of Contents
The probability of a Bitcoin spot ETF approval increases
All investor groups are accumulating Bitcoin
Advertisement
Bitcoin halving and historical data highlight potential
Positive market sentiment in the crypto market continues to rise
Technical indicators also reflect traders’ bullish sentiment
Although at the beginning of 2023, investors had little hope for the recovery of the crypto market, this year has surprised most market participants with the soaring prices of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and many other altcoins. The high volatility in the crypto market seems to be increasing, and a bull market is expected in 2024.
The global cryptocurrency market capitalization reached $1.69 trillion, a 112% increase over the past 12 months. Bitcoin and Ethereum prices rose by 154% and 93% respectively. This growth is even more significant in altcoins such as Solana and Avalanche (AVAX), which saw increases of 880% and 250% respectively during the same period.
The main factors driving the rise in cryptocurrency prices include the increasing probability of a Bitcoin spot ETF approval, the successful upgrade of the Ethereum network in Shanghai, and the Bitcoin halving.
In the United States, discussions about a Bitcoin ETF continue to heat up. According to Bloomberg’s ETF analysis, the likelihood of spot BTC ETF approval before the final statutory deadline for certain applications on January 10 is 90%.
If approved, such an ETF could attract more institutional investors into the field, not only positively impacting BTC but also affecting the prices of other cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin advocate Michael Saylor, the founder of MicroStrategy, stated that the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF could be the biggest development on Wall Street in the past thirty years.
Bitcoin holders are showing confidence in BTC by increasing their holdings. On-chain data from Glassnode shows a reversal in the trend, with long-term holders expressing optimistic views on the prospects of a Bitcoin bull market and continuing to increase their holdings.
Tracking the balances of long-term holders has always been a strong indicator of determining price tops and bottoms. In each market cycle, it is evident to see the accumulation of holders until the local price reaches its peak, and holders start selling in large quantities to realize profits.
More importantly, Bitcoin whales holding at least 1000 BTC show signs of accumulation, which historically appear before a significant rebound.
According to a report released by Glassnode on November 27, the accumulation trend score for Bitcoin is currently 1, indicating that Bitcoin whales are buying Bitcoin on a macro level.
Prominent Bitcoin whale MicroStrategy continues to increase its Bitcoin holdings after additional purchases of 14,620 BTC at an average price of $42,110 per Bitcoin, bringing its total holdings to 189,150 BTC.
Glassnode’s data also shows that lower-scale investors have set new accumulation records for Bitcoin in 2023, continuously refreshing historical highs.
Like previous cycles, this ongoing accumulation is a potential indicator that the cryptocurrency market has not yet reached its price peak.
Bitcoin’s price trends often exhibit cyclical patterns. Analysts compare the current price trajectory with historical patterns, suggesting that the current situation may resemble potential bull market cycles in 2013 and 2017.
Similarly, Bitcoin’s historical bull markets often follow a four-year cycle, usually driven by events like the Bitcoin halving, which reduces the speed of miners creating and earning new Bitcoins.
The next halving event will occur in spring 2024, and past data suggests that the bull market may start a few months before the halving event and continue until the Bitcoin price reaches a new all-time high.
In fact, with less than six months until the halving event, more and more people are predicting that the price of BTC will reach six figures.
Recently, the social media sphere has witnessed a resurgence of positive sentiment. The Cryptocurrency Fear & Greed Index, which is an indicator of investor sentiment, currently has a score of 73, indicating widespread greed in the market.
It is worth noting that this index has remained above 50 for most of 2023, indicating positive attitudes among market participants towards the broader crypto market.
This pattern of market sentiment has been a precursor to price increases in the past and may be an indicator of an upcoming bull market. Interestingly, the last time market sentiment reached this level of greed was in November 2021 when Bitcoin reached its ATH high of $69,000.
On October 23, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization surpassed the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) and reached $1.1 trillion, and as of the time of writing this article, the total market capitalization has reached $1.632 trillion. Buyers may have set their sights on the highest range of $2.168 trillion in April 2022. Technical traders will look for these key indicators before anticipating a reversal.
The relative strength index (RSI) of the global cryptocurrency market capitalization has entered the overbought zone and is nearing the resistance level of 80, reinforcing the dominance of the bulls in the market. The EMA on the weekly chart has also formed a bullish crossover.
Furthermore, if buyers establish support above the $1.75 trillion major level with significant trading volume, the three-month-long uptrend may continue into 2024.
Related Reports
Bitcoin spot ETF speculation: BTC briefly surges before plummeting, difficult to start a bull market without meeting three conditions
Tether issues $1 billion USDT on Ethereum! Is the bull market for DeFi back?
The ignition of the bull market has gathered “6 major fuels”: 2024 US interest rate cut, Bitcoin, Ethereum narrative, crypto AI…