Bitcoin Holders’ Unrealized Profits Reach a New High of $1.4 Trillion, Market Successfully Absorbs Massive Sell-off
On-chain data reveals that $141,000 may become a key price level for whales to take profits. This article is sourced from works by UkuriaOC, CryptoVizArt, and Glassnode, compiled, translated, and authored by Foresight News.
(Background: Gold, Bitcoin, and Pokémon Cards: Which is the “Perfect Collateral” of Our Time?)
(Background Supplement: MicroStrategy increases its Bitcoin holdings by $2.46 billion! Completing the largest STRC preferred stock IPO this year, BTC drops below $118,000)
Summary
Last weekend, Bitcoin’s liquidity faced a severe challenge as an early large investor sold over 80,000 BTC through Galaxy Digital’s over-the-counter trading service. Despite this $9.6 billion sell pressure causing a dip in the market, the price quickly stabilized at $119,000 after briefly dropping to $115,000, remaining just below its historical high.
Even in the face of such a massive sell-off, the unrealized profits held by market participants remain substantial. Currently, the total unrealized profits amount to $1.4 trillion, with 97% of the circulating supply still in profit.
According to multiple on-chain valuation models, Bitcoin’s price is currently fluctuating within the range of $105,000 to $125,000. If an effective breakout occurs, the price could further rise to $141,000, where significant profit-taking is expected, potentially leading to substantial selling pressure.
Deep Liquidity
The realized market cap is a fundamental metric in on-chain analysis, used to quantify the total liquidity in the Bitcoin network valued in USD. Currently, this metric has surpassed $1.02 trillion, highlighting the increasing liquidity depth and market thickness of the asset.
Last weekend, this liquidity was put to the test. An early Bitcoin investor sold 80,000 BTC (approximately $9.6 billion) through Galaxy Digital’s service, possibly via a mix of market selling and over-the-counter trading. The resulting sell pressure pushed the price down to $115,000, which subsequently stabilized at $119,000.
This event demonstrates Bitcoin’s ability to absorb massive sell pressure even during typically thin weekend trading sessions, confirming the robustness of the market structure.
This event also propelled the Net Realized Profit/Loss metric to a historical peak of $3.7 billion. Notably, the surge in this metric preceded the weekend sell-off, reflecting an early movement of funds before final allocation.
As the tokens were initially marked as internal transfers by the physical adjustment algorithm, the subsequent address changes through Galaxy Digital were recorded as economically meaningful transactions, indicating a change in ownership.
The recent surge in profit-taking behavior has sharply accelerated the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio, which has reached a staggering 571 times the losses. This figure is at an extreme high, with only 1.5% of trading days in history surpassing this level.
However, caution is warranted in interpreting this signal. While extreme profit-taking behavior may accompany price tops (as seen at the historical high of $73,000 on March 7, 2024), this does not result in an immediate reaction. For example, when breaking the $100,000 mark at the end of 2024, the peak of profit-taking occurred at the $98,000 level, but the market subsequently rose 10% to $107,000 before topping out.
This delay suggests that significantly elevated profit-taking volumes often signal (but do not immediately cause) market exhaustion. It creates a supply pressure that requires time to digest, and market responses may have a lag.
Holding Duration Analysis
After digesting a substantial amount of long-term dormant tokens, the Long-Term Holder Net Realized Profit/Loss has reached a historical high of $2.5 billion, surpassing the previous peak of $1.6 billion. This marks the largest single sell-off event in Bitcoin’s history, an extreme liquidity pressure test, yet the market has shown remarkable resilience, with prices consistently maintaining levels near historical highs.
This further confirms the extraordinary ability of the Bitcoin market to withstand significant distribution events, having already faced challenges such as the Mt. Gox compensation and German government sell-offs during this cycle.
By comparing the supply ratios of long-term and short-term holders, it is evident that the same pattern emerges during the formation of three historical peaks in this cycle: after an initial accumulation phase, there is always a sharp transition towards aggressive distribution.
The current distribution phase is ongoing, with the LTH/STH supply ratio continuing to contract. Over the past 30 days, this ratio has decreased by 11%, with only 8.6% of trading days experiencing more severe declines, highlighting the intensity of the shift in investor behavior.
Unrealized Profit Analysis
Despite facing significant sell pressure, including mass profit-taking by long-term investors last weekend, the Bitcoin market has remained unusually stable. Consequently, the vast majority of participants still hold substantial unrealized profits, with 97% of the circulating supply currently having entry costs below the spot price.
The total unrealized gains held by market participants recently reached a historical peak of $1.4 trillion. This indicates that most investors are sitting on significant floating profits, which could trigger potential selling pressure if prices continue to rise.
We can also observe the proportion of unrealized profit market cap as a standardized indicator. Currently, this indicator has again surpassed the +2σ range, a level that historically often coincides with market exuberance and the formation of historical tops. This once again confirms the reality of participants holding significant unrealized profits from a standardized perspective.
This suggests that many investors hold an optimistic view of market conditions, which not only serves as a sentiment booster but also implies that the motivation for future profit-taking may strengthen.
Unlike previous cycles, long-term holders currently control 53% of the wealth. Although this group has been distributing during this cycle, the proportion remains substantial in an environment where unrealized profits are at high levels.
Overall dynamics indicate that long-term holders may still have further sell-offs ahead. As prices rise to levels that could activate deeply dormant whale tokens, the market will require more demand inflow to absorb the selling pressure.
Market Cost Analysis
Through the Bitcoin cost basis distribution chart, a significant cost basis accumulation is observed in the $117,000 – $122,000 range. This indicates that a large number of investors completed their accumulation in this high price range.
Notably, there exists a volume vacuum in the $110,000 – $115,000 range below the spot price, a result of insufficient turnover during the rapid price rise. Not all vacuum areas need to be filled, but this region carries price attraction, and the market may need to test the effectiveness of this support, making it a focus area during pullbacks.
The cost basis of short-term holders (representing the average holding cost of new investors) has historically been a critical threshold for delineating local bull and bear markets. By overlaying standard deviation ranges, additional statistical dimensions are added:
- STH CB +2σ: $141,600
- STH CB +1σ: $125,100
- STH Cost Basis: $105,400
- STH CB -1σ: $92,100
The key observation is that Bitcoin’s price remains consistently above the short-term holders’ cost basis, which is a positive signal for market strength. Moreover, in all major peak structures during this cycle, prices have encountered resistance in the +1σ range, and the current pattern is no exception.
From a macro perspective, Bitcoin may continue to oscillate within the $105,000 – $125,000 range before decisive breakouts. If an effective breakout occurs, the $141,000 region (corresponding to the +2σ range) may become the next strong resistance level, where on-chain indicators suggest that selling pressure could intensify.
By analyzing the cost basis of internal subgroups among short-term holders, a “fast and slow cost basis band” can be constructed as a momentum indicator of short-term market sentiment. Current prices remain above all short-term subgroup cost bases, indicating market strength. Notably, the cost basis bands for holders ranging from 24 hours to 3 months ($110,000 – $117,000) highly overlap with the low volume area in the cost basis distribution chart.
The resonance of multiple independent indicators reinforces the importance of this price area, suggesting it may become a key support level during pullbacks.
To delve deeper into subgroup dynamics, we employ an equal-weight composite indicator to measure the proportion of profitable subgroups. This indicator has long remained above the mean and is approaching the +1σ level, indicating that current market momentum is robust, with the majority of new investors still in profit.
Conclusion
Last weekend, Bitcoin’s resilience faced a severe test as the market efficiently absorbed the sale of 80,000 BTC (valued at $9.6 billion), marking one of the largest profit-taking events in its history. Despite the staggering trading volume, the price quickly stabilized near historical highs, showcasing the current depth and maturity of market liquidity.
Bitcoin is currently oscillating within the $105,000 – $125,000 range. An effective breakout of this range could alter the market landscape, making $141,000 the next focal point, with on-chain indicators suggesting that significant profit-taking may occur in this region. Conversely, the low volume area between $110,000 – $115,000 below the current price warrants close attention, as it could become a key observation point in the event of a pullback.
