In optimistic scenarios, if BTC rises to over 300,000, ETH is expected to reach 10,000 USD.
This article is sourced from Trend Research, compiled, translated, and authored by PANews.
(Background: Continuing to rise! Ethereum strikes 2,600 USD, ETH/BTC ratio surges 30% in three days)
(Context: Granting stETH holders “decision veto rights”! Lido’s new proposal may restructure the DeFi governance power structure)
Since the Trend Research report was released on April 24, 2025, ETH has surged from around 1,800 USD to approximately 2,400 USD, a rise of about 30% within a month. The prediction prior to the report was based on a starting point of 1,450 USD. As a hundred billion scale asset, it presents a rare opportunity for large capital to realize high returns in the short term. The main reasons for the bullish outlook at that time included: ETH still possesses robust financial data, and its position as a key infrastructure in crypto has not changed; the substantial adjustment after the short-term high (over a 60% drop in four months); the significant scale of shorts in the derivatives market, which has climbed to important support and resistance exchange zones after a bottom spot volume increase; and the continuous layout of traditional finance and the gradual inflow of ETFs. Currently, our forecast for ETH is that, in the long term, it could break through 5,000 USD. In optimistic scenarios, if BTC rises to over 300,000, ETH is expected to reach 10,000 USD, capturing long-term opportunities related to the ETH ecosystem.
1. Valuation Forecast for ETH
An important background for the new valuation of ETH is capturing the trend of the integration between key digital assets and traditional finance. We note that BTC, as the most important digital asset, has opened the chapter of being included as a strategic reserve asset by various U.S. states after the spot ETF approval, gradually becoming a significant expansion of dollar assets and a certain degree of strategic alternative. Currently, it ranks sixth in global asset market capitalization, with U.S. BTC spot ETFs managing approximately 118.6 billion USD in assets, accounting for about 6% of Bitcoin’s total market capitalization. The trend of merging crypto assets with traditional finance is now beyond doubt. CZ stated in an interview in Dubai in May that Bitcoin’s price in this market cycle could reach between 500,000 to 1 million USD.
ETH still possesses robust financial data, and its position as the most important infrastructure in crypto finance has not changed. The total TVL of Ethereum DeFi is approximately 60 billion USD, accounting for over 53% of the global DeFi market. The market capitalization of stablecoins is 124 billion USD, representing over 50% of the total global stablecoin market. The total AUM of Ethereum ETFs is 7.2 billion USD, with BlackRock’s tokenized money market fund BUIDL investing about 2.7 billion USD in the Ethereum ecosystem, accounting for 92% of its total assets.
ETH experienced a rapid drop to around 1,300 USD after hitting three peaks at 4,000 USD in 2024, with an ATH of over 4,800 USD. Based on the following potential factors, we predict that ETH prices will reach 5,000 USD in this market cycle:
- The imminent end of QT in the U.S. and the further beginning of interest rate cuts.
- The new SEC may bring progress on tokenization on the ETH chain and breakthroughs in staking-related legislation.
- Management and roadmap restoration of the ETH Foundation, maintaining a certain level of infrastructure innovation.
- A steadily growing on-chain financial ecosystem.
Under a long-term optimistic forecast, ETH is expected to challenge 10,000 USD in the new cycle, contingent on the following conditions:
- BTC rising to over 300,000 USD.
- ETH delivering impressive infrastructure innovations beneficial to DeFi.
- U.S. institutions promoting ETH as an important native place for asset tokenization.
- Demonstration effects driving global asset tokenization.
2. Three ETH Ecosystem Projects Not to Be Ignored
1. UNI (Uniswap): The Largest DEX Protocol in the Crypto Market
Uniswap is the earliest and largest DEX protocol in the crypto market, with a TVL of 4.7 billion USD and daily trading volumes exceeding 2 billion USD, generating 900 million USD in revenue annually. UNI is fully circulated, with about 40% locked for governance purposes, currently holding a market cap of 4 billion USD and an FDV of 6.6 billion USD.
Currently, there exists a certain disconnection between UNI’s tokenomics design and the protocol’s revenue. The revenue generated by the protocol is not automatically distributed to UNI token holders; rather, UNI primarily serves as a governance token, allowing voting to control the use of the treasury, which can indirectly have a positive effect on the UNI price through governance proposals, such as the DAO’s decision to repurchase 10 million UNI in 2024. The disconnection between protocol revenue and token gains mainly arises from prior SEC risks concerning securities classification. As U.S. crypto regulation gradually becomes more lenient and standardized, there may be potential upgrades to UNI’s protocol distribution in the future. Recently, Uniswap’s significant advancements include the development of Uniswap V4, the Unichain expansion suite, and the preliminary activation of the “Fee Switch” mechanism.
2. AAVE (Aave): The Largest Lending Protocol in the Crypto Market
AAVE is the largest lending protocol in the crypto market, with a TVL of 23 billion USD, generating 450 million USD in revenue annually, and 100% of its tokens in circulation, currently holding a market cap of 3.3 billion USD.
Similar to UNI, there is no direct dividend relationship between protocol revenue and AAVE; rather, it is influenced indirectly through governance. Recent advancements in Aave include the development of Aave V4, the cross-chain expansion suite for the native stablecoin GHO, and progress on the Horizon project exploring RWA business opportunities.
3. ENA (Ethena): The Largest Synthetic Stablecoin Protocol in the Crypto Market
Since 2025, Ethena’s synthetic dollar USDe has become the third-largest dollar-pegged asset in the crypto market, with issuance only behind USDT and USDC, and USDe is also the only synthetic stablecoin among them. In terms of revenue, Ethena is also a lucrative DeFi protocol, generating 315 million USD in revenue annually. ENA currently has a market cap of 2.18 billion USD and an FDV of 5.6 billion USD.
Recently, Ethena has made comprehensive business progress: partnering with Securitize to launch the “Converge” blockchain network aimed at bridging traditional finance and DeFi, planning to launch stablecoin products iUSDe for traditional financial institutions, integrating its stablecoin sUSDe into the Telegram application, and building an ecosystem based on its stablecoin sUSDe, including a perpetual and spot trading exchange Ethereal based on a proprietary application chain, and an on-chain options and structured products protocol Derive.
