Short-term holders of Bitcoin have realized a price increase to nearly $64,000, becoming a key support. Analyst Murphy pointed out that chips have changed hands in the $60,000 to $64,000 range to the $66,000-68,000 range in large quantities, forming a strong “moat”, and predicted that under no major market turmoil, the lower limit of STH-RP will be difficult to break.
After the release of the US non-farm payrolls data far exceeded expectations last Friday, Bitcoin dropped from nearly $72,000 to briefly touch $68,400, with the largest decline exceeding 5% during this period.
Since then, the price of Bitcoin has continued to fluctuate around $69,300, but rose to $70,000 between 11 p.m. yesterday and 2 a.m. this morning, but failed to sustain the breakthrough. At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin fell back to $69,400, a slight decrease of 0.02% in the past 24 hours.
The Realized Price of STH is approaching $64,000
The sideways oscillation of Bitcoin seems to be supported by a force. Observing on-chain chips, the realized price of short-term holders (STH) continues to rise, with the current STH Realized Price approaching $64,000, up 1.5% in the past week, indicating an increase in short-term speculative activity.
STH Realized Price is the average cost line of chips that short-term holders (users with a holding period of less than 155 days, which coincides with the approval of the US Bitcoin spot ETF around January when counted back to 155 days) exchanged on the chain, and is an indicator of the main support of the current chips. Therefore, as long as Bitcoin remains above $64,000 in the coming months, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin’s price will remain bullish, as that price is an important support level.
Chain data analyst Murphy also recently pointed out in his post:
The realized price of long and short-term holders of Bitcoin
Chips are being exchanged in large quantities from $60,000-64,000 to $66,000-68,000
Murphy further pointed out with URPD data that the main change in the on-chain structure in the past 20 days is that chips in the $60,000-64,000 range have been exchanged in large quantities to the $66,000-68,000 range, forming a stack of nearly 1.55 million BTC. This forms a thicker “moat” above the STH-RP.
Murphy concluded, “I believe that based on the current data, unless there is a sudden external event severely impacting sentiment, this lower limit (referring to STH-RP) will not be easily broken.”
URPD stands for UTXO Realized Price Distribution, which clearly reflects the price range corresponding to the last movement of BTC in circulation. Simply put, it is the price distribution of BTC on the chain. It is an advantageous indicator for analyzing the current cost, support, or resistance of chips, and therefore judging the sentiment of the current market. Interested readers can refer to the introduction here.