VanEck recently raised its price forecast for Ethereum, estimating that the price of ETH will reach $22,000 by 2030 in a bullish market scenario. Interestingly, VanEck also compared Ethereum’s user income with major Web2 companies, showing that Ethereum’s average user revenue has exceeded that of Apple Music and Netflix.
VanEck, a major asset management giant in the United States, is one of the issuers of Ethereum spot ETFs. At the end of February this year, VanEck launched its self-custody NFT marketplace and digital asset platform, SegMint, on Ethereum. Yesterday (6), according to BSCN Headlines, VanEck pledged 32,400 ETH, worth $125 million.
This has sparked speculation in the market about whether VanEck is operating nodes on its own or has chosen a third-party liquidity staking service. However, regardless of the method, it shows the high importance that this Wall Street financial giant places on the Ethereum ecosystem.
Meanwhile, the institution has released a report recently, raising its price forecast for Ethereum and discussing the optimal investment portfolio allocation between Bitcoin and Ethereum.
VanEck predicts ETH 2030 Price
VanEck expects that the Ethereum spot ETF will soon be approved for trading on a U.S. securities exchange, allowing financial advisors and institutional investors to hold Ethereum under the custody of qualified custodians while enjoying the pricing and liquidity advantages provided by ETFs. The expected growth of Ethereum and its ecosystem. Therefore, VanEck updated its financial model and reevaluated the target price of Ethereum.
According to VanEck’s forecast, by 2030, Ethereum will generate approximately $66 billion in free cash flow and have a total potential market size of $15 trillion in the following key areas (TAM):
– Financial, banking, and payments: $10.9 trillion
– Marketing, advertising, social, and gaming: $1.1 trillion
– Infrastructure: $1.8 trillion
– Artificial intelligence: $1.4 trillion
The target price of $22,000 represents Ethereum’s ability to capture 70% market share in the smart contract market. VanEck further predicts:
– Smart contract market share 90%: ETH price estimated to reach $154,000 in 2030.
– Smart contract market share 15%: ETH price estimated to be only $360 in 2030.
Interestingly, VanEck also compared Ethereum’s revenue with Web2 applications:
– Ethereum’s $3.4 billion in revenue exceeds the annual revenue of Etsy, Twitch, and Roblox.
– Ethereum has 20 million monthly active users, surpassing Instacart, Robinhood, and Vrbo.
– Each monthly active user of Ethereum can generate an average income of $172 per year, which is significantly higher compared to the user revenue of Apple Music ($100), Netflix ($142), and Instagram ($25).
VanEck believes that Ethereum can be compared to platform businesses like Apple App Store or Google Play, providing unique value propositions that Web2 platforms do not offer.
Furthermore, VanEck conducted portfolio research to evaluate the impact of including Bitcoin and Ethereum (up to 6%) in a traditional 60/40 stock-bond portfolio.
The research results show that a portfolio including 3% Bitcoin and 3% Ethereum (along with 57% S&P 500 index and 37% U.S. bonds) can achieve the highest return per unit of risk (measured by standard deviation). That is, with a conservative allocation of 6% to cryptocurrencies, the maximum allowable allocation to cryptocurrencies achieves the highest risk-adjusted return.
In terms of maximum drawdown and Sharpe ratio analysis, a 6% cryptocurrency allocation portfolio has a Sharpe ratio nearly twice that of a 60/40 portfolio, with a slightly increased drawdown. This highlights the significant benefits of adding BTC and ETH to traditional investment portfolios in terms of risk-return ratio.
For a pure cryptocurrency portfolio allocation, VanEck’s analysis shows that the ideal allocation is 71.4% Bitcoin and 28.6% Ethereum, which produces the highest Sharpe ratio, providing the best risk-adjusted return. A simple 50% BTC and 50% ETH configuration also demonstrates significant advantages, emphasizing the need for investors to hold both cryptocurrencies simultaneously to maximize benefits.