The first Ethereum spot ETF in the United States is about to be launched, but the price of Ethereum has recently been performing poorly, with a nearly 10% decline in the past month. However, Taiwanese YouTuber “聖結石” with over a million subscribers recently listed three reasons why the Ethereum price may soon start to soar.
Despite the approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for the launch of an Ethereum spot ETF, Bloomberg analysts expect that the ETF will be issued as early as July 2. However, the price of ETH has been consistently low recently, with a recent drop of nearly 10% in the past month, hitting a low of $3,212 at one point during the day, the lowest since May 20.
In the midst of a gloomy market, Taiwanese YouTuber 聖結石, who has surpassed one million subscribers, recently analyzed and predicted that ETH may soon start to soar. 聖結石 first explained that based on the weekly trend chart of ETH, the red line below the uptrend line has been providing support since December 2016 when ETH was still around $6. In October 2023, ETH briefly fell below the red line for about seven weeks but later rebounded.
聖結石 then pointed out that based on the weekly momentum indicators (MOM) of Ether, all three MOM indicators are bullish, indicating a potential preparation for a significant rise. According to cryptocurrency trader Justin’s backtesting, this judgment method is simple and clear, and it can indeed capture very large waves.
Finally, 聖結石 listed a third reason for the bullish outlook, stating that the weekly MACD indicator for ETH is showing a golden cross above the zero axis, indicating a bullish trend. He mentioned that MACD is often considered a “leek indicator” because after the golden cross, there is usually a certain degree of upward movement, which means that entering the market at this time is often easy to get trapped.
Therefore, according to 聖結石’s analysis, if one can establish a position at the bottom layer of the red slope line for ETH, the probability of an upward movement is greater than that of a downward movement. He emphasized not to go against mathematics and suggested that building a position at the bottom layer of the red slope line might be a good choice.
However, 聖結石 also cautioned that Andrew Kang, co-founder of Mechanism Capital, recently expressed pessimism about the future of ETH. Kang believes that the key to determining how much upside potential an Ethereum spot ETF can provide for ETH lies in whether Ethereum can develop innovative economic improvement pathways. Kang stated that if Ethereum can achieve significant breakthroughs in technology and applications, its upside potential will be more considerable. On the other hand, if it fails to find effective economic improvement methods, its upside potential will be limited. Kang predicted that after the launch of the Ethereum spot ETF, its ability to attract funds will be limited, and he expects the ETH price to be between $2,400 and $3,000.
(Reference: “聖結石” Twitter, CoinGecko, Bloomberg)