On June 4th (Tuesday), Space will hold a themed event titled “Outlook for the second half of 2024: How do top institutions and analysts view the current bull market phase?” The event aims to condense and present the essence for readers to see.
(Given the background:
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(Supplementary background:
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Table of Contents
Guest Speakers
Analysis of primary market hotspots and various tracks
Current stage of the overall economy and cryptocurrency market
Focus on tracks and analysis in the second half of the bull market
On June 4th (Tuesday) at 20:00 (UTC+8), Space will host a Space event with the theme “Outlook for the second half of 2024: How do top institutions and analysts view the current bull market phase?” The event will feature five heavyweight guests who will share trends and tracks worth noting in the second half of 2024 with readers and listeners, as well as the atmosphere of the primary market at the current stage. The essence of Space’s analysis is as follows!
Andrea
– Oak Grove Ventures Investment Partner
Lao Bai
– ABCDE Investment Partner
Phyrex
– Data Mover
Zhusu
– OX.FUN advisor
Mable Jiang
– Find Satoshi Ventures
Analysis of primary market hotspots and various tracks
Due to the positive developments in the crypto narrative in the first half of the year, combined with a large number of projects related to the Bitcoin ecosystem being invested in the primary market last year, it seems to have cooled down a bit now.
Recently, some KOLs or industry insiders have suggested that the primary market may have entered a cooling-off period, with some projects being overvalued and the primary market unable to generate FOMO.
Mable:
Binance’s announcement on May 20th marked a turning point for the market.
The secondary market’s ability to digest is slightly weaker
Many overvalued VC rounds, the current cycle is more suitable for Founders Round
Founders are more inclined to reduce VC investments, reasons:
Most funds are only for capital and cannot bring additional value
.
Lao Bai
Most familiar funds are currently adopting a wait-and-see attitude, with fewer actions in the primary market.
There is currently less innovation from zero to one
, and the low-hanging fruit has been picked in the last DeFi Summer and NFT era.
Apart from the Modular Blockchain track
, there are no tracks causing FOMO in the primary market.
Andrea:
Funds are divided into self-owned funds and external LP funds
Funds with external LP funds are more actively investing and eager to deploy funds
Funds with self-owned funds are relatively conservative, and due to unfavorable market conditions, they may extend the lock-up period, with a change in investment style, now
more focused on whether projects have user usage, rather than just looking at infrastructure, funds pay more attention to applications and user data.
Zhusu:
There is not strong demand for Infrastructure-type coins.
Primary market investors are turning to the secondary market due to long waiting times and potentially not receiving coins.
Buying coins in the secondary market has become more attractive, with more opportunities for retail investors to buy coins directly,
The new market status is fairer.
Lao Bai:
New projects raise valuations to hundreds of millions in Series A, and European and American VCs take over at high valuations.
OTC trading prices for retail investors are similar to exchange opening prices, making the market more efficient
The aftermath of the previous bull market, new coins peak at opening, with limited room, such as EtherFi opening at a 7 billion FDV.
A few new coins like Celestia and old coins like RNDR outperform BTC.
If valuations do not decrease, meme mainstream may emerge,
The market may correct itself in the event of a sharp downturn
Phyrex:
The main point of contention in the current market is whether the Fed will cut rates.
The possibility and timing of rate cuts directly impact the cryptocurrency market.
Expectations for market trends during the U.S. election cycle are good
Investors can adjust their investment strategies by focusing on relevant data.
Lao Bai: It’s hard to find undervalued projects
Warmhole was priced at $1.6 off-exchange before issuance, with an FDV of $16 billion, falling steadily after listing. Arbitrum’s coin price has not changed but its market cap has risen by 70%, with annualized inflation of 60-70%, and StarkWare had an FDV of $20 billion at issuance, but only 8-20 on-chain daily active users.
Individual holdings shared do not represent low valuations, Solana, AR (due to the expected AO launch), CKB’s Bitcoin scalability solution R