In the current diving market, one should recognize the situation, abandon illusions, operate in the short term, and patiently await positive developments.
(Previous context:
Bitcoin spot ETF net inflows hit a one-month high yesterday! Analyst: Those fleeing are newcomers, HODLers remain steadfast
)
(Background supplement:
Rare downgrade of Nvidia’s rating! Analyst: Rising too fast leaves no room for further gains in Bitcoin?
)
Table of Contents
10xResearch: What to Do During Bitcoin’s Crash?
Crypto Analyst: Mixed Feelings with a Hint of Stubbornness
Conclusion: Recognize the Situation, Abandon Illusions
After the market crash influenced by the war situation in April, shortly thereafter, the market again welcomes a “periodic darkest moment” — according to OKX market data, Bitcoin once fell to $53,296, a nearly 10% drop in 24 hours; Ethereum fell to $2,806, a more than 10% drop in 24 hours. Such a significant decline is influenced both by news such as Mt. Gox’s billion-dollar debt repayment and German government Bitcoin address withdrawals, and situations like Bitcoin’s price repeatedly exceeding miner shutdown prices, Bitcoin spot ETF outflows, and liquidations of some Bitcoin and Ethereum whales.
In view of this, Odaily Star Daily will summarize and analyze the perspectives of research institutions and individuals in this article for readers’ reference.
With further market decline, renowned research institution 10x Research once again stated, “I told you,” summarized below:
Market performance once again proves 10x Research as the sole major research company predicting price crashes (Odaily note: Of course, this is 10x’s typical self-promotion) — when Bitcoin price hit $67,300, we predicted the downturn. Even after the “Trump effect” over the weekend (Odaily note: referring to the impact of Trump’s better performance in the US election debate, and related political meme coins), we warned that this rebound was unsustainable and reiterated our Bitcoin target prices of $55,000 and $50,000 — Bitcoin’s current spot trading price is $54,000, down 20% from when we issued the warning.
Before Ethereum fell below $3,725, we mentioned in a report that chain liquidations could occur, causing its price to return to levels seen before the ETF expectations pushed it up. These liquidations did not wait long, with last night’s futures open interest contracts plummeting sharply. Since releasing the report on June 7th, Ethereum has fallen by 22%, currently trading around $2,900.
It is worth noting that now is not the time to rush to buy at low prices, but rather to sit back and let the bears continue their performance.
Meanwhile, many readers may have prepared for this sell-off beforehand. Although we prefer bull markets, sometimes locking in profits at high levels is the correct strategy.
There are always opportunities to make money in the crypto market, as our investment approach has proven again — price trends can be predicted, whether they are rising or falling. Our research has always been at the forefront of this downturn (Odaily note: in 10x’s tone, you know).
From a market cycle perspective, crypto analyst Rekt Capital analyzes, “In the 2015-2017 cycle, Bitcoin reached its price peak 518 days after the halving; in the 2019-2021 cycle, Bitcoin reached its price peak 546 days after the halving. If history repeats itself, the next bull market peak will occur between 518-546 days after the halving, meaning Bitcoin could reach a new price peak in mid-September or mid-October 2025. Previously, Bitcoin accelerated to 260 days in this cycle. However, due to the recent consolidation phase of over 3 months, its acceleration rate has sharply decreased, now about 150 days. Generally, Bitcoin maintains a longer consolidation period after halving, which would synchronize better with traditional halving cycles.”
Cycle structure synchronization theory
On the other hand, looking at the long and short-term holder structure of Bitcoin, BlockTrends research director and on-chain analyst Cauê Oliveira posted that novice investors are in trouble and losing money. During the downturn, approximately $2.4 billion worth of Bitcoin bought in the last 3-6 months has been sold off. This selling pressure comes from individuals or organizations who bought Bitcoin earlier this year, potentially speculating on Bitcoin spot ETFs and the Bitcoin halving event, but may now find themselves forced to exit. They may be classified as “long-term holders,” but their actual behavior resembles that of short-term investors, given their entry earlier this year (at relatively higher levels). Conversely, individuals or organizations holding for over a year have not sold much, indicating true long-term holders continue to HODL.
Transfer amount of Bitcoin in the last 3-6 months
Regarding specific long and short operations and whether to buy, il Capo of Crypto, a prominent crypto KOL known for consistently shorting during market uptrends, expressed a firm holding belief this time. He posted, “The market’s decline is indeed more brutal than expected. However, at this point of panic and selling for many, I don’t think switching to bearish or choosing to sell is appropriate. Now is the time to ‘broaden your horizons and stay calm.’ Mistakes may be made momentarily, but hold firm. Time will prove everything.”
As Odaily Star Daily’s senior author wrote in the latest market article “Mt. Gox’s Crash Strikes, BTC 24H Drops 10% Below $54,000, Where’s the Bottom?”, “The main reason for this round of market downturn is Mt. Gox’s selling, though the market may have exaggerated its impact.”
Mr. Market is sometimes slow to react, slow enough that real information does not ferment immediately; but sometimes sensitive, sensitive enough to be as nervous as a bird startled by the slightest movement. But in fact, “the most important factors affecting future market trends are the results of the US election and the expectation of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.”
Therefore, for market participants including retail and institutional investors, the best choice now may be to switch from “long-term thinking” to “short-term thinking,” focusing on operations within 6 hours, even 4 hours or 2 hours, leaning more towards trend trading rather than getting entangled in the unanswered question of whether Bitcoin and the market are in a bull market.
In summary, it’s 16 words — Recognize the situation, abandon illusions, operate in the short term, and patiently await positive developments.
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