Binance founder Zhao Changpeng’s sentencing hearing will officially take place on April 30th in a Seattle court in the United States. The U.S. Department of Justice has requested a sentence of 3 years for Zhao Changpeng. However, predictions on the decentralized prediction platform, Polymarket, indicate that most bettors believe Zhao Changpeng will be released from prison sooner.
In November of last year, Binance reached a settlement agreement with the U.S. Department of Justice, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and other institutions. Binance pleaded guilty and agreed to pay a $4.3 billion fine. Founder Zhao Changpeng admitted to violating U.S. anti-money laundering laws and other charges. He resigned from his position as CEO of Binance and paid a bail of $175 million.
Zhao Changpeng’s sentencing hearing will take place on Tuesday in a Seattle court. In a sentencing memorandum released by the U.S. Department of Justice last week, it requested a sentence of 36 months of imprisonment for Zhao Changpeng, as well as a $50 million fine, to demonstrate a strict regulatory stance against cryptocurrency money laundering activities.
However, the prediction market on Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform, shows that bettors are more optimistic about Zhao Changpeng being released sooner. The probability of a sentence less than 6 months is 44%, 6-11 months is 17%, 12-17 months is 16%, and 18-23 months is 12%. This means that there is an 89% chance that Zhao Changpeng will be released within two years. If a bettor places a $1 bet on Zhao Changpeng’s sentence being less than 6 months and is successful, they would receive $2.22, resulting in a 122% return on investment. Additionally, the probability of a sentence of 24-29 months is 4%, 30-35 months is 2%, and more than 36 months is 10%.
Bettors may hope that the support letters for Zhao Changpeng can convince the presiding judge to give a lenient sentence. A total of 161 support letters have been sent by his family, friends, and others, hoping that the judge can make a fair judgment after seeing a more complete picture of Zhao Changpeng. Zhao Changpeng has also sent an apology letter to the judge, apologizing for his “wrong decisions.”
It is worth noting that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is seeking to strengthen regulation of prediction markets. It is considering banning derivatives related to U.S. elections and may also restrict betting contracts on other events, including sports and global health crises.
Despite the short duration of the Republican presidential primary this year, with most candidates dropping out of the race within weeks without being able to surpass former U.S. President Trump, interest in the election remains at historically high levels. The betting volume on the 2024 U.S. presidential election winner has already exceeded $117 million. In theory, this $117 million bet does not come from the United States, as Polymarket agreed to prohibit U.S. users from participating in betting activities in a settlement agreement reached with the CFTC last year.
Previously, Polymarket attracted over $3.78 million in illegal bets for the outcome of the 2024 Taiwan presidential election, which raised concerns among Taiwan’s judicial authorities and led to the arrest of over 30 bettors within two months.