When BlackRock submitted the Bitcoin ETF application, the price of Bitcoin was about $25,000. Now, the return on Bitcoin has reached 2.6 times. Can the approval of the Ethereum ETF further boost the price of Ethereum?
When will the Ethereum spot ETF be approved for listing by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)? The market is closely following the progress of the S-1 registration statement. On the evening of June 21, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas released a total of 8 applicants for the Ethereum spot ETF and reiterated that July 2 will be the issuance date of the Ethereum spot ETF.
The Bitcoin ETF has provided many new buyers with the opportunity to allocate Bitcoin to their investment portfolios, causing the price of Bitcoin to soar. When BlackRock submitted the Bitcoin ETF application, the price of Bitcoin was about $25,000. Now, the return on Bitcoin has reached 2.6 times. Can the approval of the Ethereum ETF further boost the price of Ethereum?
Andrew Kang: Limited impact of Ethereum ETF
Regarding future price increase predictions, Andrew Kang, co-founder of Mechanism Capital, expressed a conservative view today (23). He pointed out that compared to Bitcoin, the impact of the Ethereum ETF appears to be limited. Even though the return on Ethereum has reached 2.1 times in the same period, it is not as significant as the increase in Bitcoin’s price.
He believes that to determine how much upside potential the Ethereum ETF can provide, the key lies in whether Ethereum can develop innovative economic improvement pathways. If Ethereum can achieve significant breakthroughs in technology and applications, its upside potential will be more considerable. Conversely, if effective economic improvement methods cannot be found, its upside potential will be limited.
ETH may fall to $2,400 after the ETF is launched
According to Eric Balchunas’ estimates, Ethereum’s market volume may only be 10% of Bitcoin’s. This means that within 6 months, the net purchase volume of Ethereum is expected to be $500 million, and the net volume is $1.5 billion.
Andrew Kang’s personal prediction is that the Ethereum ETF market accounts for about 15% of Bitcoin’s market volume, which is $840 million in net purchase volume and $2.52 billion in net volume.
Before the ETF is launched, the expected trading price of ETH is between $3,000 and $3,800; after the ETF is launched, Andrew Kang predicts a price between $2,400 and $3,000. It is worth mentioning that Andrew Kang also stated that everything still depends on Bitcoin. If Bitcoin rises to $100,000 by the end of 2024 or early 2025, this may push ETH to a new all-time high, but the ETH/BTC ratio will be lower.