Bitcoin has been fluctuating between $42,600 and $43,500 over the past three days, while Ethereum has been fluctuating between $2,280 and $2,330 with little volatility. It is worth noting that the outflow of funds from GBTC has significantly slowed down since the approval of the spot ETF application, with GBTC reducing its holdings by 140,825 BTC and the other 8 ETFs increasing their holdings by 175,479 BTC.
Bitcoin (BTC) briefly fell below the $42,000 mark on the 1st, reaching a low of $41,884, but quickly rebounded to $42,000 on the 2nd. Over the past three days, it has continued to fluctuate between $42,600 and $43,500, with no significant volatility, and was reported at $43,033 before the deadline, a 0.3% decrease in the past 24 hours.
On the other hand, Ethereum (ETH) reached a high of $2,391 on January 31, but briefly slipped to a low of $2,240 on the 1st. It has since made a slight recovery and has been fluctuating between $2,280 and $2,330 over the past three days. Before the deadline, it was reported at $2,285, a 0.8% decrease in the past 24 hours.
Trend observation 1: Slowdown in GBTC outflows
It is worth noting that the outflow of funds from Grayscale’s GBTC has been decreasing. According to BitMEX Research data, on the 16th trading day since the launch of the Bitcoin spot ETF on February 2, there was a daily outflow of $145 million. This marked a slowdown in outflows for 9 consecutive days (except for a slight increase on the 30th), following the highest daily outflow of $640 million on January 22.
According to Lookonchain data, GBTC has reduced its holdings by 4,255 BTC (approximately $183 million) on the 3rd. Since the approval of the GBTC Bitcoin spot ETF conversion, GBTC has reduced its holdings by 140,825 BTC (approximately $6.07 billion). However, other spot ETFs such as BlackRock have increased their holdings by 175,479 BTC (approximately $7.56 billion), resulting in a net inflow of 34,654 BTC into spot ETFs.
According to Arkham Intelligence data, Grayscale’s GBTC still holds approximately 481,000 BTC, equivalent to approximately $20.7 billion.
Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas previously predicted that the outflow rate of GBTC would be higher than 20% but would not exceed 35%. At least one-third of these outflows from GBTC would be reinvested in Bitcoin. With the outflows from GBTC, the net inflow of funds into Bitcoin spot ETFs this year is expected to reach $10 billion.
Trend observation 2: USDT market cap at a new high
In addition, data from IntoTheBlock shows that USDT has reached a significant milestone with a market cap of $96 billion, reaching a new all-time high. IntoTheBlock also points out that the market cap of stablecoins has been steadily increasing, adding over $9 billion since October 2023, further strengthening the possibility of an upcoming bull market cycle.