Bitcoin hit a new high of $93,265 this week before pulling back, but the most popular track since Trump’s election remains MEME coins. Additionally, market sentiment seems to have shifted this week due to concerns about inflation resurging under Trump’s presidency. The following is a summary of the week’s major events, on-chain data updates, and important events to watch next week.
(Pre-story: Powell signals no rush to cut rates, Bitcoin plunges to $86,600, U.S. stocks fall; October PPI shows inflation remains sticky)
(Background: Dzone Weekly Report: Bitcoin hits new highs, Fed cuts rates by 25 basis points, Ethereum recovers)
**Bitcoin Dynamics:**
– Powell signals no rush to cut rates, Bitcoin price briefly falls to $86,600, market cap surpasses silver, becoming the world’s 8th largest asset.
– Meme sector heats up: This week, the average increase in the Memecoin track reached 60%, significantly outpacing other tracks.
– Fed rate cut progress: Soros’ ally warns that declaring victory over inflation is premature, and inflation could re-emerge.
– Market activity: Upbit’s cryptocurrency trading volume exceeds South Korea’s stock market; Glassnode report indicates Bitcoin has entered an “euphoric phase.”
– Financial regulators: Registration system for Virtual Asset Service Providers (VASPs) to be implemented by year-end.
– Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin will rise to $1 million due to unlimited quantitative easing (QE) policies.
– 18 U.S. states jointly sue the SEC: Alleging unconstitutional overreach and unfair treatment of the cryptocurrency industry.
– Trump appoints Musk to lead the Government Efficiency Department: Musk’s resurgence fuels a wave of related meme coin enthusiasm.
**Sentiment and Sector Performance:**
1. **Fear & Greed Index:**
– This week’s market sentiment indicator rose from 75 (greedy) to 88 (extremely greedy), remaining within the (greedy) to (extremely greedy) range throughout the week.
2. **Funding Rate Heatmap:**
– This week, Bitcoin funding rates peaked at 58.59% and bottomed out at 6.13%, indicating strong bullish sentiment.
– The funding rate heatmap displays the funding rate trends of various cryptocurrencies, with colors ranging from green for zero rates to yellow for 50% positive rates, and black for negative rates. The white K-line chart shows Bitcoin price fluctuations, contrasting with funding rates.
3. **Sector Performance:**
– According to Artemis data, the average increase in the blockchain sector this week was 7.2%, with MemeCoin, Store of Value, and Gen 1 Smart Contracts leading at 60.9%, 36.0%, and 21.1%, respectively.
– This week, Bitcoin and Ethereum increased by 15.3% and 3.8%, respectively.
– The three worst-performing sectors were Staking (-12.4%), Data Availability (-10.2%), and Bridge (-6.4%).
**Market Liquidity:**
1. **Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap and Stablecoin Supply:**
– This week, the total cryptocurrency market cap increased from $2.68 trillion to $3.06 trillion, adding $380 billion, representing a growth of approximately 14.2%. BTC’s market share is 55.42%, and ETH’s market share is 12.21%.
– The total stablecoin supply, an important indicator of market health and liquidity, increased from $167.81 billion to $177.14 billion, adding $9.33 billion, representing a growth of about 5.6%.
2. **Significant Increase in Potential Buying Power on Exchanges:**
– Data shows a net inflow trend in exchange assets this week, particularly with a large influx of USDT after the U.S. election. This phenomenon may indicate that investors are preparing for upcoming market volatility, and the inflow of funds into exchanges suggests an increase in short-term buying demand.
– Additionally, the highest single-day net inflow reached $7.5 billion, surpassing the previous bull market’s record of $6.7 billion, indicating ample market liquidity.
3. **Top 100 Gainers:**
– This week, the crypto market saw strong gains, with PNUT leading the pack with a 1,426% increase. DOGE, PEPE, and others also surged significantly, indicating a rise in investor risk appetite and substantial gains in meme coins. According to Blockchaincenter data, the altcoin season index is currently 27, suggesting that while Bitcoin remains dominant, interest in altcoins is relatively low.
**Bitcoin Technical Indicators:**
1. **Bitcoin Spot ETF Sees Massive Net Inflows:**
– This week, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $2.3215 billion, nearly doubling last week’s amount. On November 11, a single day’s inflow reached $1.12 billion, the second-highest on record.
2. **Bitcoin Rainbow Chart:**
– The Bitcoin rainbow chart shows that the current price ($87,000) is in the “consider dollar-cost averaging” zone.
3. **Bitcoin Realized Net Profit/Loss:**
– The realized net profit/loss indicator for Bitcoin shows that market conditions are improving, with the profit-to-loss ratio structure similar to early March this year, when Bitcoin prices reached a peak in mid-March. The increase in this indicator reflects more investors realizing profits, signaling a shift in market sentiment towards positivity and potentially higher future prices. However, caution is advised regarding potential pullbacks, especially after rapid price increases, which may lead to profit-taking.
4. **Long-Term Bitcoin Holder Liquidation:**
– Chain data shows a significant decline in the net position of long-term Bitcoin holders, with the red bar indicating increasing selling pressure. Since mid-October, the net position change of long-term holders has turned negative, indicating that some long-term investors are beginning to take profits. This trend is particularly evident as Bitcoin approaches new highs, suggesting that some capital is choosing to exit at these levels.
– The dynamics of long-term holders, especially their position changes at market highs, are worth monitoring as they may signal potential market corrections or capital rotation.
5. **Strong On-Chain Purchasing Power for Bitcoin:**
– Chain data this week shows that the positions of both short-term (red line) and long-term (blue line) Bitcoin holders have changed. As prices rise, the holdings of short-term holders have significantly increased, while those of long-term holders have decreased. This trend indicates that short-term investors are actively entering the market during price rallies, further boosting market vitality. Conversely, some long-term holders are choosing to take profits at this time.
– An increase in short-term holder positions typically reflects optimistic market sentiment, as short-term funds are more susceptible to market news. However, a decrease in long-term holder positions may reduce market stability, and potential short-term pullbacks should be monitored.
6. **Bitcoin Futures Open Interest Reaches New High:**
– Data shows that Bitcoin futures open interest on exchanges increased rapidly this week, rising from $46.53 billion to $56.3 billion, setting a new historical high. Simultaneously, Bitcoin prices also hit new highs, breaking the record set in March this year. This indicates sustained investment enthusiasm in Bitcoin, but also warns investors of potential increased volatility.
7. **Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index:**
– This week, the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index turned positive from negative last week, indicating stronger demand for Bitcoin in the U.S. market, driving up the premium.
– A positive premium difference may suggest that U.S. investors have greater purchasing power compared to global investors.
8. **Short-Term On-Chain Cost Basis Band:**
– This week, the short-term on-chain cost basis band for Bitcoin shows that the price is approaching the upper band (red line) at $96,800, reflecting high market sentiment and increased willingness of short-term investors to realize profits. The realized price for long-term holders (blue line) is $68,700.
– In the short term, the price may face resistance near the upper band, increasing the risk of a pullback. It is essential to observe whether the price can stabilize at high levels to support further gains.
**Important Ethereum Technical Indicators:**
1. **Ethereum Spot ETF Sees Net Inflows:**
– This week, Ethereum ETFs saw net inflows of approximately $6.421 billion. On November 11, a single day’s inflow reached a record $295.5 million.
2. **Bitcoin Correlation:**
– This week’s data shows correlations between BTC and ETH and SOL at 0.24 and 0.72, respectively. Compared to last week’s high correlations, the correlations between major tokens have decreased, indicating weaker market consensus. Most major tokens have correlation coefficients below last week’s 0.90 level, reflecting increased volatility in market risk preferences. TON and BNB still have low correlations with other mainstream cryptocurrencies, such as 0.38 and 0.21 with BTC.
– This week’s data suggests a decrease in overall market联动性,投资者对未来市场趋势的看法分歧加大。
3. **DeFi Market Total Locked Value (TVL):**
– This week, DeFi market TVL increased from $104.917 billion to $96.553 billion from last week.
1. **Powell Signals No Rush to Cut Rates, Bitcoin Plunges to $86,600, U.S. Stocks Fall: October PPI Shows Inflation Remains Sticky**
– The U.S. October PPI data released last night showed obstacles in controlling inflation, with a muted reaction from U.S. stocks. However, Bitcoin broke through the $89,000 mark. (Continue Reading)
2. **Upbit Cryptocurrency Trading Volume Surpasses South Korean Stock Market, Signs of Overheating?**
– Influenced by Trump’s potential America First policy, the South Korean stock market has been hit recently. Conversely, the South Korean cryptocurrency market is booming, but this may also signal an impending reversal. (Continue Reading)
3. **Arthur Hayes’ New View: Trump’s Presidency Will Initiate Unlimited QE, Bitcoin Could Reach $1 Million**
– BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes published a new long article titled “Black or White,” describing future U.S. government fiscal measures and stating that Bitcoin could reach $1 million under continuous credit creation in the U.S. (Continue Reading)
4. **China’s Stimulus Measures Prove Ineffective, A-Share Market Rises Then Falls, PBOC Outlines Five Goals to Save the Market**
– China announced new fiscal stimulus measures on August 8, but the A-share market’s reaction was relatively calm compared to the surge following the stimulus announcement in late September. After a brief spike at the opening today, the market quickly fell. Recently, PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng outlined five policy directions, including increasing monetary policy adjustments, strengthening financial regulation, and guiding financial institutions to support emerging industries. (Continue Reading)
5. **Bitcoin’s Market Cap Surpasses Silver to Become the “8th Largest Global Asset”: Analysts Predict Bitcoin Spot ETF Could Overtake Gold ETF by January Next Year**
– Following Trump’s victory, Bitcoin surged by $22,000 in one week, reaching a new all-time high of $89,575 this morning. Its market cap surpassed silver, making it the 8th largest global asset. Bloomberg analysts estimate that the asset size of Bitcoin ETFs is likely to surpass that of gold ETFs by the time they reach their one-year anniversary in January next year. (Continue Reading)
6. **Soros Ally Warns: Inflation Rebound Likely, Fed May Be Too Optimistic**
– The U.S. Federal Reserve began a four-year hiatus of rate cuts in September, reigniting enthusiasm in the asset markets. However, Soros’s ally Stanley Druckenmiller warned that the Fed’s declaration of victory over inflation is premature, and inflation could rebound. (Continue Reading)
7. **CZ Reminds: Don’t Be Greedy! Bitcoin Sets New Highs for Four Consecutive Days, Don’t Put All Your Eggs in One Basket**
– Bitcoin reached a new high of $77,200 around 4 AM, setting new records for four consecutive days. Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) reminded investors to manage risks and avoid putting all their eggs in one basket to prevent excessive greed. (Continue Reading)
8. **Trump’s Return Brings Uncertainty! Central Bank Highlights Three Major Financial and Economic Impacts on Taiwan: Tariff Barriers Could Cause Disasters**
– With Trump’s return to the White House, his style could bring significant uncertainty to the global political and economic landscape. Central Bank Governor Yang Jinlong stated today that Trump’s new trade policies could bring three major impacts: slowing global economic growth and rising inflation, weakening China’s economic momentum, and affecting global financial market stability due to uncertainties in U.S. monetary policy. (Continue Reading)
9. **Glassnode Warns: Bitcoin Enters “Euphoric Phase,” Profit-Taking Correction Possible Within 10 Days**
– Glassnode’s report indicates that Bitcoin has entered a highly profitable “euphoric phase.” Historically, such phases have seen corrections about 22 days later, and the current phase has lasted 12 days, suggesting a potential correction within 10 days. Additionally, realized profits in November reached $20.4 billion, and if they exceed the historical peak of $30 billion, it could trigger selling pressure. (Continue Reading)
10. **Gold Plummets for Five Consecutive Days After Trump’s Victory! Declining Safe-Haven Demand Could Become a Concern for Bitcoin?**
– Following Trump’s victory, gold prices have continued to fall, breaking the $2,600 mark yesterday and further dropping to $2,554 today, marking five consecutive days of declines. The correlation between Bitcoin and gold has dropped to its lowest point in 11 months, with analysts noting that capital is being reallocated from traditional safe havens like gold to cryptocurrencies. (Continue Reading)
1. **18 U.S. States Jointly Sue the SEC: Unconstitutional Overreach and Unfair Treatment of the Cryptocurrency Industry**
– The attorneys general of 18 U.S. states have jointly sued the SEC, accusing it of unconstitutional overreach in its enforcement actions against the cryptocurrency industry. The lawsuit claims that the SEC lacks a clear regulatory framework and enforces rules harshly, hindering states’ economic management autonomy. This lawsuit could redefine the federal and state power distribution in U.S. cryptocurrency regulation. (Continue Reading)
2. **Crackdown on Fraud: Internet “Real Name Ad System” to be Implemented on January 1, FSC: VASP Registration System to Take Effect by Year-End**
– FSC Chairman Peng Jinlong stated during a legislative inquiry yesterday that the FSC supports the real-name ad system proposed by the Digital Development Ministry to combat fraud. He also announced that the virtual asset service provider (VASP) registration system will take effect on January 1, 2024. (Continue Reading)
3. **FTX Sues Binance and CZ! Demands “Refund of $1.8 Billion” for Exorbitant Stock Repurchase, What’s the Story?**
– The bankrupt exchange FTX has recently filed a lawsuit against Binance and its former CEO, Changpeng Zhao (CZ), demanding the return of funds paid by SBF to CZ for an exorbitant stock repurchase in 2021. (Continue Reading)
4. **Bhutan’s National Bitcoin Holdings Reach One-Third of GDP: Can Bitcoin Become a New Global Reserve Favorite?**
– As Bitcoin enters a new upward cycle, national-level “hoarders” like Bhutan are reaping substantial returns. With major economies like the U.S. gradually adopting a more positive and open attitude toward Bitcoin, it is expected that more countries may list Bitcoin as a national reserve asset in the future. (Continue Reading)
5. **FBI Raids Polymarket CEO’s Home, Seizes Phone and Computer, Biden Administration Engages in Political Retaliation?**
– Decentralized prediction platform Polymarket gained attention for accurately predicting Trump’s victory, but following the election, the Biden administration took legal action against Polymarket. The U.S. Department of Justice is investigating Polymarket for allegedly accepting transactions from U.S. users, and the FBI seized the phone and electronic devices of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan on Wednesday. (Continue Reading)
6. **South Korean Influencer Scams $21 Million with Shitcoins, 620,000 Subscriber Youtuber’s Home Filled with Cash, Leads Fraud Ring**
– South Korean police announced today that they arrested 215 individuals related to an investment advisory company on charges of fraud under the Special Act on Aggravated Punishments for Specific Economic Crimes. Twelve people, including the head Youtuber Mr. A (pseudonym), were detained. The group is accused of defrauding over 15,000 people of 325.6 billion won by promoting “cryptocurrency investments.” (Continue Reading)
**Events to Watch Next Week:**
**November 18 (Monday)**
– Hong Kong: October Unemployment Rate, Previous: 3.0%
**November 19 (Tuesday)**
– Eurozone: October Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY, Forecast: 2.0%, Previous: 1.7%
**November 20 (Wednesday)**
– UK: October Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY, Previous: 1.7%
**November 21 (Thursday)**
– Hong Kong: October Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY, Previous: 2.20%
– USA: Initial Jobless Claims
– USA: November Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Previous: 10.3
– USA: October Existing Home Sales, Previous: 3.84M
**November 22 (Friday)**
– Germany: Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) QoQ, Forecast: 0.2%, Previous: 0.2%
– USA: November Manufacturing PMI, Previous: 48.5
– USA: November Services PMI, Previous: 55.0
**Recommended Interview Videos:**
1. ABS: “The Evolution of Cryptocurrencies” — Dr. Lin Han, Founder of Gate.io (English)
(Video Link)
**This Week’s Top 5 Popular Articles:**
1. **Five Years Ago Today: Hangzhou Woman Buys 60 Bitcoins, Sent to Mental Hospital by Husband…**
– Recently, a screenshot of an article from five years ago has gone viral in the crypto community. The article describes how a woman from Hangzhou used over 3 million RMB to buy 60 bitcoins, leading her husband to send her to a mental hospital for treatment. At the time, the cost of bitcoin was around $7,000 to $10,000. If she held onto them for five years, she would have made nearly 35 million RMB. (Continue Reading)
2. **Dogecoin Becomes 6th Largest Cryptocurrency! Targeting $1, Dogecoin Aims to Replicate 2021 Gains?**
– Trump’s victory sparked a surge in the crypto market, with Dogecoin (DOGE) briefly breaking the $0.30 mark and gaining 27.1% in 24 hours, surpassing USDC to become the 6th largest cryptocurrency by market cap. The recent surge in Dogecoin is likely a pre-emptive reaction to expectations of renewed attention due to the establishment of the “Government Efficiency Department” under Trump’s administration and Musk’s leadership of the department. (Continue Reading)
3. **Rich Dad Reveals Bitcoin Holdings: 73 Coins, Plans to Increase to 100: Bull Run Not Over Yet!**
– Robert Kiyosaki, author of “Rich Dad, Poor Dad,” revealed today that he initially bought Bitcoin at around $6,000 per coin and currently holds 73 coins, with plans to increase his holdings to 100 coins within a year. Looking ahead, Lookonchain analyzed five indicators suggesting that Bitcoin’s price has not yet reached the peak of this bull run. (Continue Reading)
4. **Arthur Hayes’ New View: Trump’s Presidency Will Initiate Unlimited QE, Bitcoin Could Reach $1 Million**
– BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes published a new long article titled “Black or White,” describing future U.S. government fiscal measures and stating that Bitcoin could reach $1 million under continuous credit creation in the U.S. (Continue Reading)
5. **Making Millions in Seconds: How a Post-00 Student Used Information Advantage to Become a Billionaire?**
– In the fast-paced crypto market, how do speed and information advantage become key to success? This article explores the extraordinary story of young trader Vida, who transformed from an ordinary student to a billionaire trader in just a few years. (Continue Reading)
