Bitcoin Halving Countdown: 100 Days Left! Looking back at the three previous halvings, it is indeed true that Bitcoin prices have surged. Will the upcoming fourth halving do the same? Analysts suggest that it may still require overall monetary and fiscal policy coordination…
(Previous Summary:
Bitcoin Plunges, Approaching $41,500, Over 100,000 People Liquidated, Is GBTC Dumping to Blame?)
(Background Supplement:
Taking Profits? Bitcoin Concept Stocks Soar Over 7% at Opening, but Close with a 10% Drop)
With the successful launch of Bitcoin Spot ETF, another potential catalyst for Bitcoin is the upcoming fourth halving, estimated to occur in mid-April this year. According to the latest data from Bitcoin Block Half, there are approximately 100 days left until the Bitcoin halving. At that time, the Bitcoin reward per block will decrease from the current 6.25 coins to 3.125 coins.
Bitcoin Halving Countdown: 100 Days Left | Source: Bitcoin Block Half
Reviewing Past Halving Trends
The background behind Bitcoin halving becoming a bullish market narrative is the expected increase in scarcity, which is believed to contribute to the rise in prices. However, statistically speaking, past halvings did not immediately trigger a surge in Bitcoin prices. It took several months to a year and a half to fully develop:
First Halving: In 2012, approximately 12 months after the peak (November 2013), prices surged by 8,450%.
Second Halving: In 2016, approximately 17 months after the peak (December 2017), prices surged by 290%.
Third Halving: In 2019, approximately 18 months after the peak (November 2021), prices surged by 560%.
Past Halving Trends | Source: X
Is the rise in Bitcoin truly related to halving every time? Coinbase analyst David Duong
previously wrote a report
summarizing the background of the three previous Bitcoin halvings, pointing out that the halving events coincided with important historical monetary and fiscal policy events:
In 2012, the Federal Reserve began the third round of quantitative easing (QE3) by purchasing mortgage-backed securities and long-term government bonds.
In the second half of 2016, the Brexit-induced fiscal concerns in the European Union and the United Kingdom led to increased BTC purchases.
In 2020, central banks and governments around the world implemented unprecedented fiscal stimulus measures to address the COVID-19 pandemic, which boosted global liquidity.
Therefore, besides paying attention to the supply and demand dynamics of BTC, investors also need a clear understanding of the market background, including the impact of the US dollar, interest rates, and global liquidity.
VanEck Analyst: Bitcoin to Reach New Highs by the End of This Year
In December last year, VanEck analyst
estimated
that the approval of the Bitcoin Spot ETF, combined with the halving event, will drive Bitcoin to achieve a new all-time high in the fourth quarter of this year.
From the chart below, VanEck defines Bitcoin’s fourth cycle as 2022-2025 and divides it into three scenarios (Low, Moderate, Bullish). In the Bullish scenario, VanEck estimates that Bitcoin will reach a cycle peak of $160,000.
However, whether history can truly repeat itself still requires time to prove. Investors are reminded to properly manage risks.
Further Reading:
How High Can Bitcoin Fly in 2024? This Institution Boldly Calls for “$500,000”
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