After BTC broke through $69,000, investors in the market are expecting it to reach new highs. This article analyzes the future market trends through the perspectives of different traders and influencers.
Technical Analysis Group
@leon_li2
@Crypto_Painter_X
@Patrade_Buer
Data Analysis Group
@Kbeast.eth
@LinChen91162689
@Crypto_Painter_X
Macro Analysis Group
@Phyrex_Ni
Other Cryptocurrencies
@MaoShu_CN
@0XENAS
On the evening of October 21st, BTC broke through and officially reached $69,000, with a high of $69,500. BTC remained in a sideways trend over the weekend with limited liquidity. Why did it suddenly surge during the US trading session on Sunday? Was this surge driven by futures or spot purchases?
Recently, there have been positive news for altcoins, starting with APE, DYDX, SUSHI, and other altcoins experiencing more than a 20% increase after positive news. Are the bottom altcoins gradually becoming active again? Can the altcoin market lead another bullish wave like in October last year? Let’s look at the opinions of traders from various angles.
@leon_li2
From the perspective of the candlestick chart, BTC seems to have broken the downtrend line of the past six months and appears to be reaching new highs every day. However, the trading volume for these new highs has significantly shrunk. On the other hand, ETH has broken the previous high but only reached the real resistance zone of $2,800. The increase in ETH’s price yesterday brought about a high market sentiment, with contract prices being higher than spot prices for the first time. Therefore, it is believed that the bull market is in its final stage and a major correction may be imminent.
Many people compare the current market situation with October 23 years ago, where the weekly MACD had a golden cross and the weekly K-line broke through the previous high. However, I believe that the current market sentiment is completely different from back then. At that time, the market sentiment was consistently bearish, while now it is consistently bullish. I don’t believe that the MACD golden cross here has any practical operational significance since a golden cross can immediately turn into a death cross. So, let’s see if it will replicate the previous week’s performance and continue to create new highs.
Regarding when I will stop being bearish, I will probably do so after ETH consolidates and effectively breaks through $2,820. Currently, I don’t have any short positions, but I am looking for an entry point for short positions on the right side.
@Crypto_Painter_X
From the ASR-VC4 hourly channel perspective, the current price behavior is similar to the pattern at the end of September, continuously executing near the average resistance zone. It could either be a consolidation or an exhaustion of momentum. From the perspective of spot premium, it resembles the market situation in early June, with a bullish trend under long-term negative premium. The key level for determining a complete transition to a bullish trend is at $71,000. If there is a strong breakthrough in the average resistance zone, the first target may be near the overbought line, currently around $77,500.
@Patrade_Buer
From a weekly perspective, the market continues to rise, and currently, BSL is waiting to be plundered. This upward trend must reach new highs, and personally, I am looking at targets starting with 9. Currently, we are still within the range (usually, gaps in the FVG range will be filled). Pay attention to whether there will be opportunities for WFVG, around $64,500.
From a daily perspective, the market continues to oscillate upwards, mainly waiting for BSL to be plundered. If BTC has a pullback opportunity, it will probably be around $645, and that’s when you should buy. There aren’t many trading opportunities for BTC, so look for opportunities in altcoins.
From an hourly perspective, the market is oscillating upwards, constantly creating new highs. If it doesn’t break the OB level on a pullback, you can go long in the intraday trading. If it falls below the OB level, you can expect buying opportunities on a pullback.
@CryptosLaowai
Firstly, the long-term downtrend line of this cycle has been broken and successfully retested, forming a bearish rising wedge pattern on the lower timeframe. It is believed that the short-term trend will weaken, and it may decline back to the long-term downtrend line and the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level, which is around $67,000. On a larger timeframe, a bullish rising wedge pattern is forming, with the first target for this cycle’s uptrend around $72,000.
@Kbeast.eth
Based on the value area of BTC’s wide-ranging oscillation in the past six months, yesterday’s upward breakthrough did not surpass the VAH of the past six months. The thickest distribution, which is the largest supply area, is at $70,900. If the uptrend continues without any upward auction rejection, the next target will be $70,900.
From the perspective of annual VWAP, it has already experienced a buildup and successfully retested without any significant downward pressure. Therefore, it is believed that it will continue to break through upwards in the short term. According to the buyer liquidity depth chart and liquidation heatmap, a key level for a downward retracement is around $65,000 to $67,000.
Observing the intraday auction structure, it is clearly an upward auction structure. It also aligns with the viewpoint of further upward breakthroughs, so it is still bullish.
@LinChen91162689
From a data perspective, in terms of spot trading: aggregated spot trading showed a slight sell-off on Sunday evening but started to rise with volume on Monday morning, with two consecutive surges. Regarding futures trading: aggregated futures trading showed continuous small-scale sell-offs on Sunday evening and Monday morning. In the first surge of spot trading, futures were still mainly short and some were selling. However, after breaking through $69,000 completely, it turned fully bullish. It seems that the bearish positions were opened on the left side based on the assumption that $69,000 may be a false breakthrough and were later stopped out by strong buying pressure in the spot market.
It is worth noting that Coinbase has changed its continuous selling status since Sunday and started to make continuous small purchases. This is a significant change. However, apart from the three surges with substantial buying, Binance Futures mostly engaged in small-scale closing long/short positions. In summary, spot buying pressure is starting to appear! Although the volume is not large, if it can absorb the profit-taking supply from futures, the price will stabilize above $69,000.
From the perspective of USDT market dominance, the weekly market dominance of USDT has slightly fallen below the uptrend line of the past six months. If this is a confirmed breakdown, it indicates the entry of idle funds, and the most probable performance is that BTC’s dominance rate has temporarily peaked, and low-cap altcoins will gain overall liquidity in the next 2-3 weeks.
From the perspective of total futures open interest, BTC’s total futures open interest has remained above $40 billion for three consecutive days, while the price has increased by $1,500. This indicates that there has been some small-scale buying in the spot market. However, compared to the previous open interest when BTC was oscillating between $68,000 and $69,000, the current total open interest has increased by $2.5 billion. For spot market bulls, although sentiment is high, there has not been a significant amount of selling pressure.
Therefore, for the current market, spot trading will not be a potential source of risk. The additional $2.5 billion open interest might be the source of the next “bear killing.” Clearing out highly leveraged long positions is a prerequisite for the next upward trend in a true bull market. In a futures-weighted market, bears are the source of upward movement, while bulls become a burden.
@Phyrex_Ni
On Friday, BTC’s spot ETF data still performed well. Although it showed a trend of decreasing buying power, a significant amount of funds can still be seen concentrated in BTC. On Friday, the spot ETF had a net inflow of 4,099 BTC, the lowest data of the week but still relatively strong.
BlackRock has been continuously increasing its holdings for five consecutive working days, adding a total of 16,975 BTC. This weekly increase in holdings has not been seen since March, and Fidelity ranked second with a net increase of 4,807 BTC, followed by ARK with 4,538 BTC, and Bitwise with 2,244 BTC.
It is worth mentioning that Grayscale’s GBTC has had a net increase of 963 BTC in the past week, not including the amount accumulated by Mini ETFs. This is in stark contrast to ETH. Even during a period of tight liquidity, investors still focused on BTC.
In the past week, the net purchasing power of the twelve US ETFs for BTC was 31,119.43 BTC, an increase of 685.34% compared to the previous week. Grayscale’s net selling has transformed from 1,103.36 BTC two weeks ago to a net inflow of 1,232.71 BTC. Grayscale is no longer synonymous with BTC selling.
@MaoShu_CN
The altcoin market did show some improvement over the weekend, with a pullback in meme coins. However, even in an optimistic environment, caution is still necessary. The oracle sector has seen an increase in activity with API3 and DIA, indicating increased on-chain activity. This could be seen as a positive signal for altcoins. APE’s pump on October 20th led to a significant increase, with the highest surge exceeding 100%, leading to an overall increase in the metaverse and NFT sectors.
Overall, it seems that the market narrative does not currently revolve around the metaverse and NFTs. It is necessary to be cautious with these hotspots as they may be opportunities for altcoins to become active and then sell off. After all, the metaverse and NFT sectors have been the least active in this cycle. However, there is optimism regarding the activity in the oracle sector, as it was the first to take off in the last year’s altcoin boom. Hopefully, it can bring back market activity this time as well.
@0XENAS
He believes that the market operates in a mysterious way, and we all have the opportunity to find coins that can bring excess returns or go to zero after being promoted by other KOLs. For him, he would choose $GOAT and $GNON, and he has already bought GOAT at a low price. He believes that GOAT and GNON will be key positions in the future long-term trend. If he is wrong, he will become the liquidity for others to exit.
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