BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes wrote on the 1st that the world is in a new inflationary cycle centered around nation-states and highly localized, and against the backdrop of huge fiscal deficits and a loose monetary environment, he is confident in Bitcoin, believing it to be the best way to protect wealth.
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(Additional Background:
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Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX, wrote on the 1st that the global economy and geopolitical situation are undergoing profound changes. Despite the uncertainty of the future, including which economic model will end, which country will lead the future, and what the trade finance structure will look like, he is confident that the direction of change is clear.
A new inflationary economic cycle has arrived
According to Arthur Hayes, historically there have been two types of periods: local and global. During local inflationary periods, one should hold gold and avoid stocks and bonds, and during global deflationary periods, one should hold stocks and avoid gold and bonds.
In Arthur Hayes’ view, we are now in a new inflationary cycle that is centered around nation-states and highly localized. The characteristic of this cycle is that countries prioritize their own interests, inflation is high, and governments will once again financially repress their own depositors to finance wars.
Bitcoin is the best way to protect wealth
In this cycle, discussing the U.S. economic situation, Arthur Hayes says that according to the latest forecast, due to significant government spending, the U.S. fiscal deficit for 2024 will surge to $1.915 trillion, a historic high. This is good news for those worried that President Biden will not maintain U.S. economic vitality through more spending before the election.
Additionally, Arthur Hayes points out that the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta expects the real GDP growth rate of the U.S. for the third quarter of 2024 to reach 2.7%. For those worried about a recession in the U.S., it is extremely difficult for the economy to decline when the government spends $2 trillion beyond tax revenue, especially if a global financial crisis of the same magnitude as 2008-2009 occurs.
Arthur Hayes emphasizes that he lists these data to prove that the fiscal and monetary situation is loose and will continue to be so. Against the backdrop of global inflation, Bitcoin has performed particularly well, not only surpassing stocks but also effectively resisting the devaluation of fiat currencies. Therefore, holding cryptocurrencies is the best way to protect wealth.
Arthur Hayes concludes that the current situation will be similar to the 1930-1970s, with the continuous expansion and centralized distribution of bank system credit, traditional currencies may face the risk of devaluation. He advises investors to move funds from the fiat currency system to cryptocurrencies, firmly believing that Bitcoin will once again perform impressively.
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