The Bitcoin spot ETF frenzy has subsided for the third week, according to analyst Yu Yan’s data. After the opening of the US stock market next Monday (April 29th), these ETFs’ custodial addresses will have a net outflow of approximately 1,310 Bitcoins. Additionally, 10XResearch also expresses a pessimistic view on the future market outlook.
(Prior summary: The Bitcoin spot ETF “IBIT” from BlackRock has had 70 consecutive days of net inflows, entering the top ten historical rankings.)
(Background supplement: Is the Bitcoin spot ETF frenzy subsiding? Net inflows are no longer the norm and occasionally negative. How does Bloomberg analyst view this?)
After experiencing several weeks of continuous large net inflows, it seems that the Bitcoin spot ETF frenzy has subsided. According to HODL Capital data, there has been a significant outflow of funds for Bitcoin spot ETFs in the 16th week, totaling 5,176 Bitcoins. This marks the third consecutive week of net outflows.
Three consecutive weeks of net outflows | HODL Capital
Analyst: 1,310 BTC to be withdrawn after Monday’s opening
Furthermore, according to on-chain analyst Yu Yan’s data, during the trading on April 26th, a total of $83.61 million was withdrawn from eleven US Bitcoin spot ETFs. This number also indicates that after the opening of the US stock market next Monday (April 29th), these ETFs’ custodial addresses will have a net outflow of approximately 1,310 Bitcoins.
Among them, the ETF with the largest outflow is Grayscale’s GBTC, which, combined with two other ETFs, has a total outflow of approximately 1,395 Bitcoins. The corresponding fund outflow is $89.04 million. Overall, the total amount of Bitcoin held by these eleven BTC spot ETFs is 833,562 Bitcoins, with a market value of approximately $5.321 billion.
Status of US Bitcoin spot ETFs on Monday | Source: Yu Yan
10XResearch: BTC may fall to the $52,000 range
In terms of market conditions, based on the analysis by 10XResearch, Bitcoin is currently facing certain downward risks and may further decline to the expected range of $52,000 to $55,000. This risk assessment is derived from multiple market structure data, including the decrease in Bitcoin miners’ revenue, which to some extent reflects a problem with Bitcoin’s fair value.
After reaching a historical high on March 15th, Bitcoin has experienced two significant price declines, which are usually seen as signals of exhaustion of upward momentum in the market.
10XResearch analysts believe that Bitcoin has already fallen to a short-term high point in a downward trend and is entering a potential downward channel towards $52,000. The next 24 hours will be a critical moment to determine whether Bitcoin will further decline.
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