Bitcoin is about to undergo its fourth halving tomorrow. Historically, the price of Bitcoin has surged significantly after halving events. Although many market participants believe that this halving may be different, anonymous analyst PlanB, who successfully predicted the price of Bitcoin in the previous bull market cycle, stated this week that Bitcoin will still experience a halving rally.
According to the Bitcoin halving countdown data, there is less than 1 day left until the fourth halving, which is expected to occur around 9 am Taiwan time on April 20th. In the past, Bitcoin has often experienced a “halving rally” shortly after halving events, driving the price of the cryptocurrency to grow substantially. However, many people now believe that there may not be a halving rally this time.
Unlike previous halving events, Bitcoin has already increased by 110% before the fourth halving, leading some analysts to believe that this time is different. They argue that the halving rally has already been priced in by the market, and this halving event may trigger a “sell the news” event, causing Bitcoin to plummet.
PlanB reiterated that a halving rally is imminent. Using his renowned Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, PlanB shared a chart on Wednesday, suggesting that the Bitcoin halving will not be any different from previous halvings. He believes that the upward trend of Bitcoin will revolve around the halving. He advises buying in the six months before the halving and selling in the 18 months after the halving, which will outperform simply buying and holding. PlanB predicts that Bitcoin will surpass $100,000 in 2024 and reach a peak of over $300,000 in 2025.
Adam Back, the CEO of Bitcoin infrastructure company Blockstream, believes that Bitcoin will outperform gold in this market cycle. PlanB responded by saying that Bitcoin is currently in the early stage of a bull market, which is expected to last for about a year.
In response to criticism from a netizen who questioned the accuracy of his predictions, PlanB countered by reminding investors about the risks associated with the current Bitcoin halving, such as the Federal Reserve reaching a 23-year high and regional crises.
It is worth noting that this time, the Bitcoin halving is accompanied by risks such as the Federal Reserve reaching a 23-year high and regional crises, so investors should exercise caution and manage risks effectively.