Bitcoin has recently experienced a significant decline, with a sudden drop of over 15% within four days, reaching a low of nearly $60,000. However, some analysts believe that the market may have reached its bottom. Data from Bitfinex and Binance shows that whales have a stronger willingness to buy at lower prices than retail investors.
Amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, a booming US economy, and the possibility of the Fed delaying interest rate cuts, Bitcoin briefly fell to $60,000, marking a maximum decline of nearly 15%. The topic of discussion among market investors is whether the bottom has arrived.
Benson Sun, a prominent figure in the cryptocurrency community, has a method to determine the market bottom. He looks at the trends of the Bitfinex USD lending rate (green line) and Binance USDT lending rate (orange line). When the Bitfinex USD lending rate curve crosses above the Binance USDT lending rate curve, it often indicates the market bottom. This is because during the bear market period when Bitcoin was fluctuating between $16,000 and $30,000, the green line was consistently above the orange line. However, since entering the bull market in October last year, the market sentiment has reversed. The orange line has become the norm above the green line. Interestingly, the short periods when the green line briefly crosses above the orange line have coincided with relative bottoms in the bull market.
It is also worth noting that blockchain analytics firm Santiment data indicates that despite the recent Bitcoin crash, whales have not sold off their holdings. Since March 1st, major whale groups have continued to accumulate Bitcoin:
Wallets holding 100 to 1,000 BTC: Accumulated an additional 43,489 BTC
Wallets holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC: Accumulated an additional 80,544 BTC
Wallets holding 10,000 to 100,000 BTC: Accumulated an additional 91,732 BTC
Note: Bitcoin whales typically hold at least 1,000 BTC or more.
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