Cryptocurrency research firm 10x Research analyst Markus Thielen issued a warning in a report yesterday regarding the post-halving trend, predicting that miners may liquidate $5 billion worth of BTC after the halving, causing Bitcoin to consolidate in the coming months.
Bitcoin is expected to undergo its fourth halving event around the 20th of this month, reducing the block reward for miners from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.
There are differing views on the post-halving trajectory of Bitcoin. Historically, during previous halving cycles, the halving often occurred before a major bull market for Bitcoin. The post-halving period often witnessed a significant pullback, followed by a notable surge, and eventually breaking the previous all-time high a few months later. However, in this current halving cycle, Bitcoin already surpassed its previous all-time high in March before the halving, marking the first time in halving history.
Some analysts believe that this may indicate that the Bitcoin price has already absorbed the impact of the halving and may experience a typical “sell the news” dip after the halving. Last month, analysts at JPMorgan predicted that due to reduced mining rewards and increased production costs, Bitcoin could drop to around $42,000 after the halving.
Markus Thielen, an analyst at 10x Research, also issued a warning regarding the post-halving trend. In a report yesterday, he wrote that Bitcoin miners may sell $5 billion worth of Bitcoin after the halving to cope with the rising mining difficulty and financial needs. This could pose significant challenges to the cryptocurrency market during the six-month summer lull, especially for altcoins.
The report states that this is a typical scenario before a halving, where miners typically hoard BTC before the halving, leading to an imbalance in supply and demand, and subsequently driving up the price of Bitcoin.