Bitcoin recently surged to $73,000 before plummeting below $67,000, leaving the market uncertain about its future direction. This article provides an analysis of the total market capitalization of stablecoins, altcoins, and Bitcoin ETF data to help readers assess the market outlook. The information in this article is sourced from cryptocurrency KOL Riyue Xiaochu and organized and written by PANews.
Table of Contents
Important Data for Decision-Making
Analysis of Stablecoin Market Capitalization
Analysis of Altcoin Market Capitalization
ETF Data Analysis
Trends in US and Asian Capital
Analysis of BTC Whales
Important Data for Decision-Making
1) Since BTC reached $38,000, the total market capitalization of stablecoins has increased by $11 billion. There was a significant increase in stablecoin issuance of $3.7 billion last week.
2) Since March 6, the main source of BTC buying pressure has shifted to Asian capital. There are signs of withdrawal from US capital, as BTC fell by 15% during the US time zone, which is not a good sign.
3) ETF has a total inflow of $9.5 billion, indicating that the inflow of stablecoin funds still exceeds that of ETF and is the biggest driving force behind the overall increase in the cryptocurrency market. However, ETF can only purchase BTC, so the funds from ETF have a dominant position in BTC’s rise.
4) In terms of BTC whales, the number of addresses with more than 1,000 BTC has decreased by 50 in the past week, while the number of addresses with more than 100 BTC has increased by 86.
Analysis of Stablecoin Market Capitalization
In terms of the total market capitalization of stablecoins, here are some data points:
The lowest point of this round of market was on September 10, 2023, with a total stablecoin market capitalization of $121 billion.
The lowest point after the approval of the ETF was when BTC adjusted to $38,500, which was on January 23, 2024, with a total stablecoin market capitalization of $128.3 billion.
Last Monday, the total stablecoin market capitalization was $135.6 billion.
This Monday, the total stablecoin market capitalization was $139.3 billion.
In other words, from the beginning of the last round of market to the lowest point after the ETF approval, stablecoins have increased by a total of $7.3 billion. In the past month, stablecoins have increased by $11 billion, with a significant increase of $3.7 billion last week.
For mainstream stablecoins USDT and USDC, since September 10, 2023, USDT has increased from $82.9 billion to $102 billion, an increase of $19.1 billion. USDC has increased from $26.1 billion to $30.2 billion, an increase of $3.9 billion.
Analysis of Altcoin Market Capitalization
In the chart above:
Black represents the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies;
Green represents the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies excluding BTC and ETH;
Orange represents the total market capitalization of USDT.
From the chart above, we can see the following:
1) Since the bottom in September 2023, the growth of BTC+ETH’s total market capitalization has been significantly higher than that of other altcoins, and most of the time it has been higher. So, first of all, congratulations to those who hold significant positions in BTC and ETH. Secondly, if your current gains are not surpassing BTC and ETH, don’t doubt yourself. Don’t look at people on the Internet claiming to have made tens of times their profits. The actual overall gains of altcoins are behind BTC and ETH.
2) The increase in USDT market capitalization is clearly slower than the increase in the market capitalization of cryptocurrencies. This is due to two reasons: the funds from ETF and US dollar funds, mainly from Coinbase. As the market rises, people in the market tend to adopt a hold strategy, so a large amount of funds is not needed to drive the market.
ETF Data Analysis
From the ETF data, as of March 8, the net assets of ETF holding BTC were $55 billion. The cumulative net inflow was $9.5 billion, while the increase in stablecoin issuance was $11 billion. Therefore, the inflow of stablecoin funds still exceeds that of ETF and is the biggest driving force behind the overall increase in the cryptocurrency market. However, we know that ETF funds can only be used to buy BTC, while stablecoin funds also include other altcoins. Therefore, in the rise of BTC, ETF funds have a dominant position.
From the relationship between the price and net inflows of ETF shown above, it is evident that ETF is strongly correlated with the price of BTC. When there was a net outflow around January 20, BTC was in a state of declining bottoming. When there was a net inflow, BTC was in a state of rising. In other words, US ETF funds dominate the price factors of BTC.
Further reading:
Bitcoin Cash ETF Breaks $10 Billion Trading Volume, Net Inflows Exceed $7.7 Billion
Trends in US and Asian Capital
Looking at the contributions to the rise of BTC from different time zones over the past month, the US time zone has been in a leading position, with the US being the largest driving force behind BTC’s rally, and Asian capital has made relatively smaller contributions. However, since March 6, there have been signs of withdrawal from US capital, and BTC fell by 15% during the US time zone. The main source of buying pressure has shifted to Asian capital.
Moreover, in terms of cumulative contributions over the past month, Asian capital has far exceeded that of the US. Historically, the sustainability of Asian capital is not long, so this may not be a very good signal.
Analysis of BTC Whales
In the past month, the balance of BTC on exchanges has been declining, from 2.363 million to 2.28 million, with a net outflow of 83,000 BTC. At the same time, the number of whales holding more than 10,000 BTC decreased by 1, and the number of whales holding more than 1,000 BTC decreased by 9, while the number of whales holding 100 BTC increased by 190.
Therefore, the net outflow from BTC exchanges mainly comes from whales holding around 100 BTC. Looking at the data from the past week, the balance of BTC on exchanges continues to decline, and the number of whales holding more than 10,000 BTC has not changed. However, there has been a significant decrease in the number of whales holding 1,000 BTC, with a decrease of about 50, while the number of whales holding 100 BTC has increased by about 80.
Further reading:
Bitcoin Whales Unfazed by Market Crash, Buying 1,000 BTC Daily, Rebound Imminent?
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