Bitcoin has been trading in a narrow range between $51,000 and $52,000 recently, failing to continue its upward momentum. However, market sentiment remains optimistic. On-chain data shows a significant decrease in the selling speed of long-term holders, and the Bitcoin balance in exchange wallets has reached a new low since April 2018, as the halving approaches.
Bitcoin reached a high of nearly $53,000 on the 20th, marking a new high since November 2021. However, it subsequently started to decline and has been oscillating between $51,000 and $52,000 in recent days. It briefly dropped to $50,625 last night. Nevertheless, the latest on-chain data indicates that market sentiment remains optimistic.
According to data from IntoTheBlock, long-term Bitcoin holders have sold approximately 200,000 BTC since the beginning of this year. This selling trend has continued for nearly three months, leading to a continuous decrease in the Bitcoin holdings of long-term holders.
Despite the selling activity, IntoTheBlock points out that this is typical behavior of long-term holders during a bull market. Furthermore, there is a significant difference in selling speed compared to the previous bull market. During the last bull market, the holdings of long-term holders decreased by about 15%, whereas the current decrease in holdings is only about 1.5%.
The impact of selling has been offset by a large accumulation of Bitcoin by various investors. Data released by CryptoQuant’s CEO, Ki Young Ju, shows that on the 21st, there was an inflow of 25,300 BTC into hoarding addresses, setting a new historical high. The conditions for hoarding addresses include no outgoing transactions, a balance of over 10 BTC, not belonging to centralized exchanges (CEX) or miner accounts, having received two or more incoming transactions, and the most recent transaction occurring within the past 7 years.
Additionally, the amount of Bitcoin held by exchanges has been decreasing significantly since mid-March 2020, indicating a change in investor behavior. Exchanges previously held over 17% of the Bitcoin supply in 2020 but have been continuously decreasing since then. According to Glassnode data, the Bitcoin balance in exchange wallets has decreased from 2.356 million BTC on January 1 to 2.314 million BTC on February 19, reaching the lowest level since April 2018. This has resulted in a decrease in the percentage of Bitcoin supply held by exchanges from 12.03% to 11.79% since the beginning of this year.
Bitcoin will undergo its fourth halving in April this year. Looking back at the previous three halvings, the price of Bitcoin has significantly increased. Anthony Scaramucci, the founder of SkyBridge Capital, predicted last month that Bitcoin will soar to at least $170,000 after this halving and may even reach $400,000 in the future.
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