Assuming the Bitcoin spot ETF is approved, the scale of Bitcoin held by various issuers will inevitably become the focus of the market. According to SpotOnChain data, in the past three months, 5 billion USDT stablecoins have been minted on the Ethereum network, with 2.95 billion directly entering a special wallet, 0x1db, and then being deposited into different centralized exchanges.
(Background information:
Fake news! SEC Twitter (X) hacked and released “False news of spot ETF approval”, Bitcoin surged to 48,000 and then plummeted)
The approval of the first Bitcoin spot ETF by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has become the focus of the market this week. The scale of seed funding invested by various issuers has also attracted attention. According to the latest S-1 amended document, VanEck has injected a seed fund of $72.5 million into its Bitcoin spot ETF, and BlackRock has injected a seed capital of $10 million into its Bitcoin spot ETF. Fidelity has injected a seed capital of $20 million into its Bitcoin spot ETF.
Has 2.95 billion USDT already entered the Bitcoin market?
It is worth noting that according to SpotOnChain data, in the past three months, 5 billion USDT stablecoins have been minted on the Ethereum network, of which 2.95 billion have directly flowed into a wallet starting with 0x1db, and have subsequently been deposited into different centralized exchanges. Such a large amount of funds inevitably makes investors speculate whether the ETF institutions have already entered the market in advance to buy Bitcoin spot.
According to SpotOnChain, out of the 2.95 billion USDT, 1.76 billion have flowed into Coinbase, 517 million have flowed into Kraken, 434 million have flowed into Binance, and 232 million have flowed into Kraken.
(Source: Spotonchain)
Vaneck estimates that the Bitcoin spot ETF will reach a market of $40 billion within the next two years.
In fact, spot ETFs approved by the SEC are explicitly required to adopt a “cash purchase/redemption model”. Under this model, authorized participants (APs) create or redeem shares of the Bitcoin spot ETF using cash. This means that authorized participants provide cash to ETF funds, and fund managers in major institutions then use this cash to purchase Bitcoin.
Previously, Matthew, the head of digital research at issuer VanEck, stated in an interview with THE BLOCK that there were rumors that BlackRock had already arranged more than $2 billion in fund flows for the new ETF in the first week, and these funds came from existing Bitcoin holders. Considering this, it is not unfounded to say that institutions have already positioned themselves in the spot Bitcoin market in the past three months.
On the other hand, Matthew stated that if $2 billion in transactions did occur in the first week, it would far exceed VanEck’s expectations. Based on the trading volume of the first gold ETF, they expected a trading volume of $2.5 billion in the first quarter. Based on similar analysis, they conservatively estimate that the Bitcoin spot ETF will reach a market of $40 billion within the next two years.
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