Matrixport released two research reports on January 2nd and 3rd, which sparked controversy within the community due to the contradictory viewpoints expressed. Many people questioned whether the platform was maliciously manipulating the market by taking advantage of the SEC’s expected approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF.
(Background:
BTC’s culprit for the sharp drop? Matrixport: SEC won’t approve any spot ETF in January, causing Bitcoin to plummet by 20%
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Contents of the article:
Is Matrixport bullish or bearish?
January 2nd: “Bitcoin Spot ETF to be Approved, BTC to Surge to $50,000”
January 3rd: “Why will the SEC Reject Bitcoin Spot ETF Application Again?”
Bloomberg Analyst: No signs indicate ETF will be rejected
Community accuses Matrixport of market manipulation
Wu Jihan clarifies: Matrixport report represents independent analyst views
Multiple analysts predict that the probability of the SEC approving a Bitcoin spot ETF in January is over 90%. However, Matrixport’s report released in the evening of January 3rd stated that the SEC will not approve any ETF in January, causing Bitcoin to sharply pull back to around $36,000 to $38,000.
As a result, BTC experienced a significant drop within a few hours, plunging from the $44,500 level to $40,750, marking the most severe decline in several months. This led the community to accuse Matrixport of spreading false information and even questioned the possibility of market manipulation.
Is Matrixport bullish or bearish?
In fact, the suspicion of market manipulation by Matrixport does not appear unfounded because just the day before (January 2nd), Matrixport had expressed great optimism regarding the SEC’s approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF, predicting a surge to $50,000 in January. Let’s take a look at the differences between the two consecutive prediction reports released by Matrixport:
January 2nd:
“Bitcoin Spot ETF to be Approved, BTC to Surge to $50,000”
Institutional investors who were previously bearish on Bitcoin are expected to immediately increase their holdings in early 2024 to avoid missing out on the upward trend.
The approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF may occur earlier than expected, which could further drive BTC’s rise.
The ETF approval will not be a “sell news” event because the Bitcoin spot ETF will make Bitcoin a legitimate asset for institutional portfolios.
The halving cycle combined with the upcoming US election will continue to drive Bitcoin’s rise.
Overall, Bitcoin is expected to reach $50,000 in January.
Matrixport’s report on January 2nd, bullish on Bitcoin. Image source: Matrixport
January 3rd:
“Why will the SEC Reject Bitcoin Spot ETF Application Again?”
The current requirements of the SEC for a Bitcoin spot ETF have not been fully met, so the SEC will not approve any Bitcoin spot ETF applications in January and will delay them until Q2 2024.
SEC Chairman Gary Gensler holds a negative attitude towards cryptocurrencies and believes that cryptocurrencies are not yet subject to strict regulation. Therefore, considering the political reasons, Gensler is unlikely to quickly change his stance and embrace Bitcoin. The SEC five-member voting committee, dominated by the Democratic Party, will also not vote in favor of a Bitcoin spot ETF in the short term.
If the ETF is rejected by the SEC, Bitcoin will experience a sharp drop to around $36,000 to $38,000 (a decrease of about 20%).
If there is no information about any approved Bitcoin spot ETF by January 5th, investors should immediately buy put options on Bitcoin or directly short Bitcoin.
Matrixport’s report on January 3rd, predicting no ETF approval in January. Image source: Matrixport
Releasing two reports with completely opposite short-term positions within 24 hours, it is no wonder that the community is extremely angry. The intense volatility in the past 24 hours has led to over 200,000 people being liquidated.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas emphasized that although Matrixport’s report claims that the SEC will not approve any Bitcoin spot ETF in January, he has not received any information regarding the rejection of ETF proposals by the SEC.
In order to verify the arguments in Matrixport’s report, Balchunas actively consulted the author of the report, Markus Thielen, to inquire about the sources of the information. Thielen subsequently stated that the report purely represents his personal views and does not cite any specific sources of information.
Image source: X
The community criticized Matrixport for market manipulation based on the significant changes in the analysis reports released consecutively over the past two days, combined with the price reactions. Francesco Madonna, CEO of Fundhelios, expressed on the X platform that he believes Matrixport’s two reports are intended to manipulate the market:
Additionally, a user named Water Junkie Cat posted on X, stating that the Bitcoin crash last night was caused by the report released by Matrixport:
Several community members directly criticized the report’s author, Markus Thielen, on X, stating, “He should be sent to prison for market manipulation.”
Wu Jihan, co-founder of Matrixport, responded on X as the situation escalated, stating:
Furthermore, Wu Jihan emphasized that in the long run, the Bitcoin spot ETF will eventually be approved by the SEC, and new funds will be attracted. The current volatility and whether the first Bitcoin spot ETF will be launched in January are not important.
Then, in the early morning of today, Wu Jihan posted again, stating:
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