Is the Bitcoin Frenzy Pausing? Strong U.S. Employment and Rising Inflation Prompt a Brief Market Correction

Bitcoin and Ethereum Spot ETFs Continue to See Net Inflows This Week

This week, Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs continued to see net inflows. However, strong U.S. employment data and a higher-than-expected year-on-year CPI growth rate may prompt the Federal Reserve to take hawkish actions, leading to a temporary correction in the cryptocurrency market. Investors should pay attention to key support and resistance levels. This article is sourced from Hotcoin Research, organized, compiled, and authored by TechFlow.

(Background: Acting Labor Statistics Bureau Chief: Recommends pausing U.S. nonfarm payroll monthly reports, Wall Street overwhelmingly opposes: a path to self-destruction)

(Context: U.S. July CPI report released showing “prices at a new high in June,” Trump pressures Powell: Tariffs did not exacerbate inflation, Fed to cut interest rates in September)

Current Market Overview

The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $4.04 trillion, with BTC accounting for 58.63%, equivalent to $2.36 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $273.4 billion, with a 7-day increase of 1.39%, where USDT accounts for 60.43%.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most are rising while a few are declining, including: OKB with a 7-day increase of 111.49%, AERO with a 7-day increase of 63.84%, RAY with a 7-day increase of 30.44%, SKL with a 7-day increase of 109.68%, and USELESS with a 7-day increase of 52.53%.

This week, the net inflow for U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs was $547.7 million; the net inflow for U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs was $2.852 billion.

Market Forecast (August 18 – August 22):

This week, there was significant issuance of stablecoins, and U.S. Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs continued to see net inflows, with altcoins experiencing substantial gains. The RSI index was at 44.15, indicating overbought conditions. The Fear & Greed Index was at 59 (lower than last week).

BTC: After breaking through $123,218, the target is $125,000; if the Federal Reserve takes hawkish actions, BTC may pull back, with support at $112,000.

ETH: With continued purchases by listed companies, ETH is expected to challenge $5,000, with support at $4,400.

Short-term traders are closely monitoring key resistance/support levels, while long-term investors are looking to position themselves during pullbacks and are focused on the September interest rate decision and the Bitcoin halving cycle.

Weekly Major Events Recap

1. On August 12, according to Jupiter data, in the market share ranking of Solana token issuance platforms over the past 24 hours, pump.fun ranked first with 69.7%, Letsbonk second with 15.2%, and BAGS third with 9.14%.
2. On August 12, Ethereum reserves in CEX fell to the lowest level since July 2016, down 6.7% so far in Q3 of this year.
3. On August 12, billionaire Peter Thiel reallocated to Ethereum; according to the latest SEC filing, Peter Thiel and his investment team acquired a 7.5% stake in Ethereum treasury reserve company ETHZilla (formerly 180 Life Sciences Corp.).
4. On August 13, according to 8Marketcap data, as ETH briefly broke above $4,600, its market capitalization was temporarily reported at $556 billion, surpassing Netflix to rank 25th globally.
5. On August 13, Bitmine Immersion (BMNR) announced plans to raise its financing scale to $20 billion to increase its ETH holdings.
6. On August 12, Aave announced that the active loan amount exceeded $25 billion, setting a historical record.
7. On August 14, according to rockflow data, cryptocurrency trading platform Bullish (BLSH) saw an 83.78% increase on its first day of trading, closing at $68 with a market capitalization of $9.94 billion and a trading volume of $5.176 billion, with a turnover rate of 185.45%.
8. On August 14, Bitcoin briefly broke through $124,000, setting a new historical high, reaching a peak of $124,051, currently quoted at $123,930, with a 24-hour increase of 3.29%.
9. On August 14, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that (regarding cryptocurrency reserves) they would not purchase but would use confiscated assets.

Macroeconomic Updates

1. On August 12, the U.S. July unadjusted core CPI year-on-year growth rate rose further to 3.1%, a five-month high, higher than the market expectation of 3.0%, previous value 2.90%.
2. On August 12, the U.S. July unadjusted CPI year-on-year growth rate was 2.7%, expected 2.80%, previous value 2.70%. It remained the same as the previous month, slightly lower than expected.
3. On August 14, after the release of U.S. July PPI data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September slightly decreased to 92.5%, with the probability of maintaining the rate unchanged at 7.5%.
4. On August 14, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending August 9 was 224,000, expected 228,000, with the previous value revised from 226,000 to 227,000.

ETF

According to statistics, from August 11 to August 15, the net inflow for U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs was $547.7 million; as of August 15, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $23.758 billion, currently holding $23.151 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $88.6 billion. The total market capitalization of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is $153.043 billion.

The net inflow for U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs was $2.852 billion.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Events

1. Coinfest Asia 2025 will be held from August 21 to 22 in Bali, Indonesia;
2. WebX Asia 2025 will be held from August 25 to 26 in Tokyo, Japan;
3. Bitcoin Asia 2025 will be held from August 28 to 29 at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre.

Important Events

1. On August 20 at 10:00, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce its interest rate decision;
2. On August 21 at 20:30, the U.S. will announce initial jobless claims for the week ending August 16;
3. On August 22 at 22:00, Federal Reserve Chair Powell will deliver a speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting.

Token Unlocks

1. ZKsync (ZK) will unlock 172 million tokens on August 17, valued at approximately $11.22 million, accounting for 3.61% of circulating supply;
2. Fasttoken (FTN) will unlock 20 million tokens on August 18, valued at approximately $9.14 million, accounting for 2.08% of circulating supply;
3. LayerZero (ZRO) will unlock 25.72 million tokens on August 20, valued at approximately $55.53 million, accounting for 8.53% of circulating supply;
4. KAITO (KAITO) will unlock 23.35 million tokens on August 20, valued at approximately $25.22 million, accounting for 8.82% of circulating supply.