Current Situation
At present, ETH has gained institutional favor through treasury strategies, the ETF boom, RWA, and stablecoin applications, but this has also left room for SOL to have opportunities for “catch-up” and narrative switching.
(Background: Why Standard Chartered predicts Ethereum will reach $7,500 by the end of 2025 and $25,000 in 2028?)
(Background Supplement: Six valuation methods: Can Ethereum reach $10,000 in this round?)
Market Trends
On August 13, ETH strongly broke through $4,700, setting a new high in four years, while SOL during the same period seemed unable to gain momentum, lingering around $200. In 2024, Pump.fun sparked a meme frenzy across the Solana chain, and at the beginning of the year, Trump launched $TRUMP on it, pushing SOL’s price to around $300 and causing a surge in calls for “Solana to replace ETH.”
However, the real market trend has given a calm answer. Despite ETH and SOL both advancing treasury strategies in an attempt to accumulate “bullets” for their ecosystems, their performances have shown a clear divergence— the SOL/ETH exchange rate has fallen from 0.09 at the beginning of the year to 0.042, maintaining a weak pattern throughout the year. The underlying reasons may not only be price fluctuations but also a comprehensive reflection of differences in narrative heat, ecosystem structure, and capital expectations.
Treasury Strategies: Differences in Leadership and Capital Scale
On June 30, Wall Street’s “contrarian bull” Tom Lee joined BitMine as Chairman, while ETH was still hovering around $2,500. Within just a month and a half, ETH surged to $4,700, an increase of 88%. Lee has long been a prominent figure on major financial shows such as CNBC and Bloomberg, and as early as the significant downturn in U.S. stocks in 2022, he reversed market pessimism with precise “bottom-fishing” remarks. Now, this market opinion leader has become the best spokesperson for ETH’s treasury. Meanwhile, ARK Invest, led by “Wooden Sister,” also invested $182 million in BMNR stock, further boosting confidence in the ETH camp.
Additionally, although both ETH and SOL have their respective treasury strategy companies, the scale differs significantly. In terms of holding size, treasury strategy companies for BTC and ETH dominate the top ten. The leading “ETH Micro Strategy” BitMine Immersion (BMNR) recently plans to increase its financing scale to $20 billion to accumulate more ETH. It currently holds $5.3 billion in NAV (Net Asset Value), second only to MSTR. This level of capital means it has more “bullets” during market fluctuations and a stronger ability to shape market trends. In contrast, the NAV of the leading “SOL Micro Strategy” is only $365 million, ranking 11th, over ten times less than BMNR. Without a public spokesperson of global influence like Tom Lee and lacking equivalent capital firepower, SOL has naturally appeared weak in this round of market movements.
New Developments in Solana
However, recent new moves from Solana are gradually addressing this shortcoming. On August 12, the “SOL Micro Strategy” Upexi established a new advisory committee and appointed Arthur Hayes as the first member. Hayes is the co-founder of BitMEX, the creator of perpetual contracts, and has worked as a trader at Deutsche Bank and Citigroup, now leading the digital asset investment fund Maelstrom. He has a traditional finance background and a deep understanding of the cryptocurrency market structure, enabling him to provide practical guidance for institutional financing and digital asset strategies.
Strategic Goals of Upexi
Upexi’s strategic goal is clear: to leverage Solana’s scalability and efficiency to further expand its layout in SOL. According to public documents, the company currently holds over 1.8 million SOL (valued at approximately $365 million) and will stake part of its holdings to earn a 7%-9% yield, ensuring long-term holdings while generating a stable cash flow. Notably, the company will acquire locked SOL at a discounted price to provide returns for shareholders. Upexi will recruit more members to join the advisory committee in the future to provide professional knowledge in cryptocurrency and finance.
Meanwhile, other publicly listed companies are also increasing their SOL holdings, with DFDV further expanding its SOL holdings to over 1 million; BTCM disclosed a new purchase of about 27,190 SOL and plans to convert some of its crypto assets into Solana. This institutional demand is expected to reduce the circulating chips in the secondary market, thereby forming support on the supply and demand side.
ETH ETF Leading, SOL ETF Awaiting Breakthrough
The management scale of the ETH spot ETF has exceeded $22 billion, not only validating institutional recognition of ETH but also quickly establishing its absolute advantage in liquidity and market depth. With ongoing inflows of institutional funds, BlackRock submitted an ETH ETF staking application last month, which, if approved, would provide stable staking returns for holders and attract more long-term capital.
In contrast, although REX-Osprey launched a Solana ETF (SSK) with a staking mechanism in July, market enthusiasm has remained low, with net inflows of zero on most trading days and a total cumulative inflow of only about $150 million since its listing. Moreover, it is not a standard spot ETF registered with the SEC but rather indirectly holds SOL through other vehicles. This structure combines a staking mechanism with offshore ETF allocations, increasing the complexity of understanding and operation, causing some institutions to remain on the sidelines; REX’s influence in branding and channels is also far less than that of Wall Street giants like BlackRock and Fidelity, lacking heavyweight institutional endorsements.
The market’s focus is currently shifting toward the SOL spot ETF applications from VanEck and Grayscale, which are expected to be approved in October. Once regulatory approval is granted, combined with the capital push from treasury strategies, if institutional investors begin to seek diversification from BTC and ETH into other quality assets, SOL ETF could bring a new growth point for the Solana ecosystem.
Divergence in Application Narratives
From the perspective of application narratives, ETH and Solana are currently on two completely different tracks.
Ethereum is steadily building a compliant, sustainable on-chain financial infrastructure. The explosive growth of stablecoins has been described by Tom Lee as the “ChatGPT moment” for the crypto industry. Currently, the global stablecoin market capitalization has surpassed $250 billion, with over half of the issuance and about 30% of Gas fees occurring on the Ethereum network. This not only further solidifies ETH’s core position in payment and clearing systems but also provides a continuous cash flow for staking, DeFi yields, and on-chain infrastructure.
Additionally, Robinhood has issued stock tokens on Ethereum Layer2, and Coinbase is vigorously developing the Base chain ecosystem, bringing more application scenarios to ETH. Currently, Ethereum has almost become the only main chain that can simultaneously meet regulatory compliance, ecosystem maturity, and economies of scale. Once ETH occupies a critical node in stablecoin payments and RWA clearing, its strategic position will be prioritized by financial institutions like a “structural subscription right.”
On the Solana side, the main narrative focuses more on meme coins and the Launchpad wars, which are high-volatility tracks often discussed, despite multiple attempts this year to enter the RWA field with the slogan “Internet Capital Market,” supporting a series of tokens such as $IBRL and Believe, all of which have ended in failure. However, the situation has recently seen a turnaround. On August 8, CMB International, a subsidiary of China Merchants Bank, partnered with Singapore’s DigiFT and Solana public chain service provider OnChain to tokenize a USD money market fund recognized in Hong Kong and Singapore, issuing CMBMINT on-chain, setting a benchmark for compliant cross-border RWA cooperation. On that day, the price of SOL broke through $200, and the market immediately regarded it as a potential starting point for a new narrative, hoping that this new application scenario could open up broader institutional funding channels for Solana.
Conclusion
Currently, although Solana still lags behind ETH in key indicators such as market enthusiasm and exchange rate performance, its underlying competitiveness and potential space have not been weakened. As an “American chain,” it inherently possesses higher regulatory adaptability and capital recognition. At present, ETH has gained institutional favor through treasury strategies, the ETF boom, RWA, and stablecoin applications, but this has also left SOL with opportunities for “catch-up” and narrative switching.
Structurally, the expectation of spot ETF approvals will open a new entrance for institutional funds into SOL. Once products from giants like VanEck and Grayscale are approved, market liquidity and trading depth could see a leap. The cross-border landing cases of RWA also prove that Solana’s application capabilities on a high-performance public chain are not limited to memes and Launchpads; its penetration in fields such as DeFi, payments, and asset tokenization still has significant room for improvement. The current pullback seems more like a buildup of strength rather than a curtain call.
