Article Overview
This article analyzes the possibility of Ethereum (ETH) reaching $10,000 in this bull market through six different valuation models, providing a comprehensive assessment of its future price trends. The article is derived from a piece written by biteyecn and compiled, edited, and authored by BlockBeats.
(Background: Bitcoin surges to $124,500, setting a new all-time high! Ethereum approaches $4,800)
(Supplementary Background: The cryptocurrency market cap soars to $4.18 trillion, hitting a record high! Bitcoin accounts for 57%, while Ethereum captures 13%.)
Ethereum’s Price Recovery
Ethereum (ETH) has rebounded significantly since its low in April and currently stands at the $4,500 mark. If 2024 marks the beginning of a bull market ignited by Bitcoin ETFs, 2025 may likely be Ethereum’s turn to shine. This article employs six valuation methods to dissect whether ETH can hit the $10,000 threshold!
1/8 ETH/BTC Ratio
First, we compare the relative valuations of ETH and BTC. Historically, the ETH/BTC ratio has been quite stable, but the current ratio is only 0.0372, which is in the lower middle range over the past five years. This suggests that ETH may currently be “undervalued.” Based on the average ETH/BTC ratio of 0.0518 over the past five years, if we assume BTC remains around $120,000, the corresponding ETH price would be $6,214. If we reference the previous bull market’s ETH/BTC ratio of 0.06-0.08 and assume BTC stays near $120,000, the corresponding ETH price would be $7,200-$9,600.
2/8 Ethereum ETF and Institutional Holdings
With the surge in ETH prices, substantial capital is pouring into Ethereum ETFs. Many overlook the actual impact of Ethereum ETFs and institutional buying, which not only contributes to positive sentiment but also represents significant buying power. According to data from @SoSoValueCrypto, Ethereum spot ETFs have reached a new historical high, with a net inflow of $1.019 billion on August 11, Eastern Time. The current net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs stands at $25.712 billion, holding approximately 6 million ETH, which accounts for 4.96% of the current circulating supply of ETH, compared to BTC’s ETF percentage of 6.48%, indicating room for growth. Additionally, 70 Ethereum reserve entities currently hold about 3.49 million ETH, representing 2.89% of ETH’s circulating supply. BMNR has publicly aimed to ultimately hold 5% of the global circulating supply of Ethereum. After deducting 36.17 million staked ETH, only about 7.51 million ETH remains in free circulation.
The following price projections are based on a simple assumption: the reduction in the free float will proportionally increase the price per unit. That is, new price = current price × (target free float / current free float). If we consider ETFs and institutional reserves as a whole, they currently hold 7.85% of total supply. Assuming this proportion increases to 10% and the staking ratio remains relatively stable, the free float would shrink to about 7.252 million ETH, resulting in a projected price of approximately $4,647; if it increases to 15%, it would rise to about $5,070; and if it increases to 20%, it would approach $6,000. This does not yet consider the amplifying effects on the demand side, so the actual increase could be even higher. Additionally, the incremental funds from ETFs and institutions typically take some time to settle, which means the price center for ETH will be raised steadily and sustainably over the long term, rather than experiencing a short-term spike.
3/8 Metcalfe’s Law
Many discussions about ETH valuation focus on price volatility and trending narratives while overlooking the long-term support that on-chain activity provides to network value. Metcalfe’s Law suggests that the value of a network is proportional to the square of its active user count. Applied to Ethereum, this means network value ≈ k × (daily active address count)². In simpler terms, “the more users, the more valuable the network,” with a square growth of users leading to exponential growth in market value. According to BitInfoCharts data, on August 13, 2025, the daily active address count (DAA) on the Ethereum mainnet was approximately 971,486, with ETH priced around $4,500, a total supply of about 120.7 million ETH, and a market cap of about $543.1 billion. Plugging these figures into the formula gives us a current coefficient k ≈ 0.576 (USD/address²).
Using this k value, we can estimate prices under different activity scenarios:
- If DAA increases to 1 million, the price would be approximately $4,768 (+6%)
- If DAA increases to 1.1 million, the price would be approximately $5,769 (+28.2%)
- In an optimistic scenario of 1.3 million (close to 90% of the historical high), the price would be approximately $8,058 (+79.1%)
This projection assumes that staking volume and circulating supply remain relatively stable, and the increase in activity will directly amplify network value, thus driving up the price per ETH. Unlike ETFs and institutional buying, the Metcalfe method reflects the intrinsic growth of on-chain usage and economic activity, relying on the compounding of network effects rather than outside capital inflows. It is important to note that once activity resonates with capital—on-chain transactions increase, fees rise, and burn rates recover—combined with the effect of ETFs and institutional accumulation, ETH’s price will be driven by both supply contraction and network expansion, potentially accelerating beyond predictions based on single factors.
4/8 NVT Model
NVT essentially functions like a “crypto PE,” allowing us to deduce market cap and price by giving a reasonable NVT multiple (based on historical ranges) and future daily transfer amounts. The formula is NVT = Market Cap (USD) / Daily On-chain Transfer Amount (USD), which calculates to NVT = 518B/14B = 37 currently. Historically, ETH’s NVT has generally ranged from 60 to 110, and it is currently positioned at a lower historical level. Assuming the NVT multiple remains within a reasonable range of 60/80/90/100/110 over the next 6-12 months and considering daily transfer amounts (USD) fluctuating between $7B and $14B, we can project:
6-Month Scenarios
- Conservative: NVT 70, daily transfers $7B → Market Cap ≈ $490B → Price ≈ $4,059
- Baseline: NVT 80, daily transfers $9B → Market Cap ≈ $720B → Price ≈ $5,965
- Optimistic: NVT 90, daily transfers $12B → Market Cap ≈ $1.08 trillion → Price ≈ $8,947
12-Month Scenarios
- Conservative: NVT 75, daily transfers $8B → Market Cap ≈ $600 billion → Price ≈ $4,971
- Baseline: NVT 90, daily transfers $10B → Market Cap ≈ $900 billion → Price ≈ $7,456
- Optimistic: NVT 100, daily transfers $14B → Market Cap ≈ $1.4 trillion → Price ≈ $11,598
This indicates that the network effect of ETH supports a valuation range between $5,000 and $12,000.
5/8 On-chain Cash Flow Model
This model views the “revenue” generated by the Ethereum protocol (transaction fees + MEV, etc.) as cash flow to assess network value. As the Ethereum application ecosystem expands, the growth of network “revenue” can enhance ETH’s valuation. Asset management firm VanEck predicts that by 2025, with the introduction of staking rewards and ETFs, ETH’s price could approach $6,000. In its 2023 report, VanEck forecasted that if on-chain fees and usage continue to rise, ETH could reach approximately $11,800 by 2030. See the chart below:
6/8 K-Line Technical Analysis
According to @CryptoPainter_X, although ETH currently faces some historical selling pressure from the supply zone established at the 2021 highs, the low and high points in the 4-hour technical structure are still gradually rising, showing no obvious signs of destruction. Observing the ASR channel, ETH’s price oscillates upward above the orange average pressure band, indicating a strong formation, suggesting that market demand is gradually absorbing the supply near historical highs. The daily ASR channel shows signs of breaking through the average pressure band. The last similar breakthrough occurred in early 2024, and if this breakthrough is successful, the daily target could directly reach the overbought line (approximately $5,600). Another possibility is a repeat of the trend from late 2024, where the upper edge of the orange channel encounters extreme resistance. Overall, current conditions remain favorable, and there is potential for ETH’s price to reach $6,000 in the medium term.
7/8 Crypto Analysts’ Scenario Predictions
Some crypto analysts and media outlets have provided a series of scenario-based forecasts for ETH’s price:
- Crypto analyst @VirtualBacon0x believes ETH has entered a new macro bull market. In the baseline scenario, ETH is expected to rise to the $6,000-$7,000 range by the end of 2025, with a long-term target of approximately $10,000 by mid-2026. In an extremely optimistic scenario, with the market going wild and BTC pushing towards $200,000 while ETH outperforms, Virtual Bacon estimates ETH could reach as high as $16,000.
- Wall Street analyst Tom Lee stated in July on the Bankless podcast that ETH should at least rebound to $4,000 in the short term; and before the end of 2025, rises to $7,000, or even reaching $12,000 or $15,000, are reasonable expectations.
- Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes provided a target price of about $10,000 for ETH by the end of 2025 in an optimistic bull market scenario. In his July 2025 article, he emphasized that a shift in U.S. policy towards credit expansion would bring abundant liquidity, coupled with renewed interest from Western institutions in Ethereum, making these macro factors key catalysts for ETH’s rise.
- Crypto media outlet Bankless proposed an extremely bullish scenario in their 2025 outlook, suggesting ETH could reach $15,000. They noted that new drivers such as the AI boom could trigger a new round of crypto market enthusiasm, providing Ethereum with the opportunity to rise into the $10,000 range. The underlying assumptions include ample market liquidity, narrative trends (such as AI + Crypto), and Ethereum’s continued dominance in the DeFi space.
8/8 Summary
Integrating the seven valuation methods, ETH has a high probability of reaching the $6,000-$8,000 range by 2025. If market sentiment is strong and on-chain activity continues to grow, breaking through $10,000 is not impossible, with extreme optimistic scenarios potentially touching the $12,000-$15,000 range. This is not merely speculation; it represents a synthesis of on-chain data, capital behavior, and macro liquidity dynamics. Regardless of whether it ultimately reaches $10,000, ETH, as the infrastructure of the crypto ecosystem, has firmly established itself within multiple valuation frameworks.
Risk Reminder: The content of this article is for informational reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. ETH’s price is influenced by multiple factors, including market sentiment, on-chain activities, and policy changes, leading to high volatility. Please make decisions based on your own risk tolerance and bear the investment risks yourself.
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