Market Observation: Trump’s Strong Push for Crypto Federal Reserve Board Member – Is a Rate Cut in September Inevitable?

This Week’s Market Overview

This week, market funds continued to flow in, with Ethereum showing strong performance. Trump’s nomination of a pro-crypto official to the Federal Reserve Board makes a rate cut in September almost a certainty, with market expectations reaching as high as 92.7%. This article is sourced from Hotcoin Research, organized, translated, and written by Deep Tide TechFlow.

(Background Summary: Federal Reserve’s Daly: The timing for a rate cut is approaching, and there may be more than two cuts this year (the September probability is nearly 95%))

(Background Supplement: Why is he the most popular candidate for the Federal Reserve?)

Market Performance

This week, stablecoins continued to be issued, and there was a continued net inflow into Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs in the U.S. Ethereum broke through the $4,000 mark this week, showing impressive performance.

Current total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies stands at $3.86 trillion, with BTC accounting for 60%, or $2.3 trillion. The market cap of stablecoins is $26.98 billion, up 1.04% over the past 7 days, with USDT holding a 61.21% share.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most are rising with a few falling, including: MNT up 41.91% over the week, PENDLE up 31.81%, PUMP up 29.16%, MYX up 1420.3%, and TOSHI up 22.52%.

This week, the net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETF in the U.S. was $253.6 million; the net inflow of Ethereum spot ETF was $326.4 million.

Market Predictions (August 11 – August 15)

This week, stablecoins continued to be issued, and there was a continued net inflow into Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs in the U.S. Ethereum broke through the $4,000 mark this week, showing impressive performance. The RSI index is at 62.75, indicating overbought conditions. The fear and greed index is at 68 (higher than last week).

BTC: There is a high probability of fluctuating in the range of $114,500 to $118,500, with the breakout direction depending on U.S. CPI data. If the data supports rate cut expectations, testing $120,000 is likely; if the data is strong, a pullback to the $112,500 support may occur;

ETH: Performance may continue to outperform BTC, with the main volatility range being $3,750 to $4,200. Any positive signals from the SEC regarding spot ETFs could push ETH to continue breaking out.

Short-term investors: A range trading strategy can be adopted, buying near support levels and taking partial profits near resistance levels.

Medium to long-term investors: Should use possible pullback opportunities to build positions gradually, focusing on strong support areas near BTC $112,500 and ETH $3,300.

Review of Major Events This Week

1. On August 6, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission released a statement regarding liquidity staking activities, stating that liquidity staking is not considered a security.
2. On August 6, Base released a report on an outage incident, which had a 33-minute block generation interruption on August 5 due to switching to a backup sorter that was not correctly configured to handle transactions.
3. On August 5, JD.com’s JD Coin Chain stated that it was aware of false reports and rumors in the market and responded that it is preparing for a stablecoin license application in Hong Kong.
4. On August 7, according to Etherscan data, the number of daily transactions on the Ethereum network reached 1.87 million, close to the historical high of 1.96 million set on January 14, 2024.
5. On August 6, Cboe BZX, a subsidiary of the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), submitted a 19b-4 filing to the SEC, requesting to allow the VanEck Ethereum ETF to stake ETH through trusted staking providers to earn rewards as income.
6. On August 6, the SEC and Ripple officially ended a four-year legal battle, maintaining the first-instance judgment.
7. On August 8, Trump announced the nomination of pro-crypto official Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board.

Macroeconomics

1. On August 6, the White House announced that Trump signed an executive order imposing an additional 25% tariff on goods from India in response to India’s continued purchase of Russian oil. Following the new tariffs from India, oil prices briefly rose, hitting intraday highs.
2. On August 7, the Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the benchmark rate from 4.25% to 4%, marking the fifth rate cut in this cycle, in line with market expectations.
3. On August 7, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending August 2 was 226,000, higher than the expected 221,000.
4. On August 8, according to CME’s “FedWatch” data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is 92.7%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 7.3%.

ETF Overview

According to statistics, from August 4 to August 8, the net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETF in the U.S. was $253.6 million; as of August 8, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $23.662 billion, currently holding $21.058 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $85.956 billion. The total market capitalization of Bitcoin spot ETF in the U.S. is $152.024 billion.

The net inflow of Ethereum spot ETF in the U.S. was $326.4 million.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Events

1. Coinfest Asia 2025 will be held on August 21-22 in Bali, Indonesia;
2. WebX Asia 2025 will take place on August 25-26 in Tokyo, Japan;
3. Bitcoin Asia 2025 will be held on August 28-29 at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre.

Important Dates

1. On August 12 at 12:30, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision;
2. On August 12 at 20:30, the U.S. will announce the seasonally adjusted CPI for July (year-on-year);
3. On August 14 at 20:30, the U.S. will announce the initial jobless claims for the previous week (in thousands) (as of August 9).

Token Unlocks

1. Aptos (APT) will unlock 11.3 million tokens on August 12, valued at $53.04 million, accounting for 2.2% of the circulating supply;
2. Avalanche (AVAX) will unlock 1.67 million tokens on August 15, valued at approximately $39.14 million, accounting for 0.33% of the circulating supply;
3. Starknet (STRK) will unlock 12.6 million tokens on August 15, valued at $16.18 million, accounting for 5.98% of the circulating supply;
4. Sei (SEI) will unlock 55.56 million tokens on August 15, valued at approximately $17.12 million, accounting for 1.21% of the circulating supply;
5. Arbitrum (ARB) will unlock 92.63 million tokens on August 16, valued at approximately $39.11 million, accounting for 2.04% of the circulating supply.