Market Insights U.S. Non-Farm Employment Data Disappoints: Beware of Potential Correction Risks in August’s Cryptocurrency Market

US July Non-Farm Employment Data Falls Far Below Expectations, Increasing Likelihood of Fed Rate Cut in September

Expectations for two rate cuts this year remain optimistic, but caution is warranted regarding potential market corrections in August. The current total market value of cryptocurrencies stands at $3.7 trillion, with BTC accounting for 61.2%, translating to $2.26 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $266.9 billion, with a recent 7-day increase of 0.65%, among which USDT holds a 61.67% share.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, a minority have risen while the majority have declined, including: TON with a 7-day increase of 13.64%, ZORA with a 7-day increase of 40.39%, ZBCN with a 7-day increase of 26.02%, USELESS with a 7-day decrease of 31.66%, and FARTCOIN with a 7-day decrease of 31.79%. This week, the net outflow from US Bitcoin spot ETFs was $642.9 million, while the net inflow into US Ethereum spot ETFs was $155 million.

Market Forecast (August 4 – August 8)

This week, there was a slight issuance of stablecoins, continued net inflow into US Ethereum spot ETFs, but significant net outflow from Bitcoin spot ETFs, alongside some corrections in altcoins. The RSI index is at 36, indicating weakness. The Fear & Greed Index is at 54 (down from last week). On August 1, the US non-farm employment data came in unexpectedly weak, with July employment numbers far below expectations, elevating the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September to 77.7%. While the outlook remains positive for two rate cuts this year, caution is advised regarding potential market corrections in August.

BTC: If it falls below $115,000, it may test the $112,000 support; if it breaks above $120,000, it targets $125,000.

ETH: Support at $3,500, with an upward target of $4,000.

Review of Major Events of the Week

1. On July 29, Bloomberg reported that Coinbase is in deep negotiations to acquire the Indian crypto trading platform CoinDCX;
2. On July 31, according to strategicethreserve data, Bitmine, Sharplink Gaming, and The Ether Machine hold more ETH than the Ethereum Foundation;
3. On July 31, Stable completed a $28 million seed funding round, co-led by Bitfinex and Hack VC;
4. On August 1, Coinbase plans to add tokenized stocks, prediction markets, and early token sale services to create a “comprehensive trading platform”;
5. On August 1, Reuters reported that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has launched Project Crypto to modernize securities regulations and facilitate on-chain financial markets;
6. The Ethereum ETF has seen 20 consecutive days of net inflows, totaling $5.4 billion, a record;
7. The SEC approved the ETF physical redemption mechanism, allowing BTC/ETH to be directly exchanged for ETF shares;
8. Trump’s tariff policy went into effect on August 1, with the market paying attention to capital flows in emerging markets.

Macroeconomic Overview

1. On July 31, the Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.5%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without changes, meeting market expectations;
2. On July 31, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time, maintaining the benchmark rate at 4.25%-4.50%, aligning with market expectations;
3. On August 1, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the non-farm payrolls for May were revised down from 144,000 to 19,000, and June’s from 147,000 to 14,000;
4. On August 1, the US seasonally adjusted non-farm employment for July was 73,000, with an expectation of 110,000.

ETF

Statistics from July 28 to August 1 show:

Net outflow from US Bitcoin spot ETFs: $642.9 million; as of August 1, GBTC (Grayscale) has recorded a total outflow of $23.665 billion, currently holding $20.503 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $83.781 billion. The total market value of US Bitcoin spot ETFs is $147.994 billion.

Net inflow into US Ethereum spot ETFs: $15.5 million.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Events

1. The Vietnam Blockchain and AI Summit CONVICTION 2025 will be held from August 9 to 10, 2025, in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam;
2. Coinfest Asia 2025 will take place from August 21 to 22 in Bali, Indonesia;
3. WebX Asia 2025 is scheduled for August 25 to 26, 2025, in Tokyo, Japan;
4. Bitcoin Asia 2025 will be held from August 28 to 29 at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre.

Important Dates

1. On August 7 at 19:00, the UK will announce its central bank interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report;
2. On August 7 at 20:30, the US will report initial jobless claims for the week ending August 2 (in thousands);
3. On August 8 at 20:30, Canada will release employment figures for July (in thousands);
4. Brazilian lawmakers are preparing to debate a new cryptocurrency tax proposal put forth by President Lula, which will impose a fixed fee of 17.5% on all transactions, eliminating income tax exemptions for small trading businesses, and targeting decentralized finance activities through measures effective from June. The deadline for this decision is October 8; if not approved by this date, it will expire.

Token Unlocking

1. IOTA will unlock 8.63 million tokens on August 5, valued at approximately $1.56 million, accounting for 0.22% of the circulating supply;
2. EIGEN will unlock 1.29 million tokens on August 6, valued at approximately $1.43 million, accounting for 0.41% of the circulating supply;
3. IMX will unlock 24.52 million tokens on August 8, valued at approximately $12.31 million, accounting for 1.3% of the circulating supply;
4. MOVE will unlock 50 million tokens on August 9, valued at approximately $6.51 million, accounting for 1.92% of the circulating supply.

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