Bitcoin Price Hovers Around $105,000, Market Awaits U.S. Employment Report
Bitcoin prices are hovering around the $105,000 mark as the market holds its breath for the U.S. employment report on Friday (June 6, U.S. time). This data could impact the Federal Reserve’s decisions on interest rate cuts and the volatility of the cryptocurrency market.
(Background: Can Bitcoin Continue to Reach Historical Highs? BTC Search Interest Drops, Volatility Approaches Two-Year Low)
(Context: Trump’s Truth Social Applies for Bitcoin ETF, Reviewer “SEC### is One of Us” Sparks Controversy)
The price of Bitcoin is fluctuating around $105,000, with the market eagerly anticipating the U.S. employment report to be released this Friday. This data is crucial not only for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decisions but also for the short-term direction of the cryptocurrency market, with analysts holding quite divergent views on Bitcoin’s performance in June.
Over the past week, Bitcoin has fallen by 3.5%, Ethereum by 4.3%, and Solana has plummeted by 11.8%. The market is consolidating, and investors are focusing on the employment report from the U.S. Department of Labor to seek clues regarding Fed policy.
The market generally expects the unemployment rate to remain steady at 4.2%, with non-farm employment expected to increase by 125,000 to 130,000 (previously 177,000), and hourly wages to grow by 0.2% to 0.3% month-on-month.
Interest Rate Expectations and Price Speculation
According to a report by The Block, Bitfinex analysts believe that Bitcoin’s bull market is tied to the Fed’s expectation of an early interest rate cut. If the employment data is weak, the view on slowing inflation will strengthen, potentially leading to an earlier rate cut by the Fed.
“In this scenario, if Bitcoin holds the $105,000 support, it is expected to challenge $120,000 to $125,000 in June.” Conversely, strong data could delay the rate cut, with a stronger dollar putting downward pressure on Bitcoin.
Bitfinex warns that prices could drop to $102,000, with the $95,000 to $97,000 range potentially becoming a buying zone. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market expects the interest rate (425-450 basis points) to remain unchanged until the end of July, with the first rate cut possibly in September.
ETF Fund Outflow?
BRN Chief Research Analyst Valentin Fournier holds a more conservative view, indicating that the market is accumulating bearish signals. He points out that fund inflows into U.S. spot crypto ETFs have worsened:
On Wednesday, Bitcoin ETF inflows dropped from $375 million to $87 million, while Ethereum ETF inflows nearly halved to $57 million, indicating a weakening momentum.
Recent frequent financing by crypto companies is also noteworthy: Solana ecosystem project Pump.fun plans to raise $1 billion, Circle is raising over $1 billion at a $6.9 billion valuation, and Kraken is reportedly preparing for an IPO. Fournier warns:
“This could be a sign of companies taking profits at high valuations or a typical signal of insiders anticipating slowing growth and declining prices.”
Historically, Rate Cuts Benefit Bitcoin
Historically, Fed rate cuts have generally been favorable for Bitcoin. Rate cuts increase market liquidity, driving capital toward risk assets, and a weaker dollar enhances Bitcoin’s appeal as a store of value. In past easing cycles, Bitcoin has often seen significant price increases.
However, in the long term, macroeconomic factors, institutional adoption of Bitcoin, and regulatory developments will be key. Some institutions are optimistically estimating that, benefiting from a shift in monetary policy, accelerated institutional investment, and macroeconomic improvements, Bitcoin could reach between $120,000 and $250,000 by the end of 2025.
