J.P. Morgan Analysts Predict Stronger Bitcoin Growth Potential in Late 2025
J.P. Morgan analysts point out that due to the softening of gold prices along with several structural bullish factors, Bitcoin will possess stronger upward potential in the second half of 2025. Meanwhile, CoinDesk analysts also noted that Bitcoin and Strategy (MSTR) have recently issued bullish signals in sync, which may indicate that a major bull trend is about to commence.
(Background: Ukraine considers establishing a “Bitcoin War Reserve” and collaborates with Binance to promote legislation)
(Supplementary Background: Cryptoquant analysts: Bitcoin whales are currently “inclined to hold” unlike retail investors; the market has not yet overheated.)
Market Dynamics and Expectations
The analysis team led by J.P. Morgan Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou recently stated in a report that the current price trend of gold and Bitcoin exhibits a “zero-sum game” relationship, meaning that one side’s rise comes at the expense of the other:
From mid-February to mid-April, gold’s rise was at the expense of Bitcoin, while in the past three weeks, the situation has reversed, with Bitcoin’s rise suppressing gold prices.
Based on this observation, J.P. Morgan expects this “zero-sum pattern” to continue until the second half of 2025, but emphasizes that Bitcoin has several bullish factors that could allow it to gain a relative advantage. The report states:
“Overall, we expect this zero-sum game between gold and Bitcoin to continue through the second half of this year, but we lean towards the view that specific catalysts for cryptocurrencies will provide Bitcoin with greater upward potential compared to gold.”
Bitcoin’s Bullish Momentum Supported by Structural Factors
In addition to the softening gold prices, J.P. Morgan also pointed out that Bitcoin’s current upward momentum is driven by several structural bullish factors, including:
- Institutions Continuing to Increase Bitcoin Holdings: Companies such as Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) and Metaplanet have recently continued to expand their Bitcoin positions.
- Some U.S. State Governments Including Bitcoin as Reserve Assets: New Hampshire has allowed up to 5% of state government assets to be invested in Bitcoin and gold. Arizona has set up a digital asset reserve, acquiring funds through staking rewards and airdrops while committing not to raise taxes.
- Maturing Crypto Derivatives Market: U.S. crypto exchanges are actively positioning themselves in the derivatives market: Coinbase has acquired Deribit, and Kraken has purchased NinjaTrader. Analysts believe that as the regulatory environment becomes clearer, these developments are expected to attract more institutional investors, enhancing overall market depth and confidence.
Therefore, with the weak gold prices and the aforementioned specific crypto catalysts, J.P. Morgan analysts believe that Bitcoin will possess stronger upward potential in the second half of 2025.
CoinDesk Technical Analysts: Bitcoin and MSTR Exhibit Golden Cross
On the other hand, CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician (CMT) Omkar Godbole pointed out in his latest technical analysis report that Bitcoin (BTC) and Strategy (MSTR) have recently issued bullish signals in sync, which may indicate that a major bull trend is about to be initiated.
He described this situation as akin to “two mainstream newspapers simultaneously endorsing the same presidential candidate,” where such unanimous backing often signifies widespread support. Similarly, when the technical indicators of Bitcoin and the publicly traded company with the largest Bitcoin holdings, MSTR, strengthen in tandem, it typically symbolizes a consensus direction among the market and major institutional investors.
Specifically, the daily charts of Bitcoin and MSTR show that their 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) has crossed above the 100-day SMA, forming what is known as a “golden cross.” This is viewed as an important indicator confirming a short- to medium-term bullish trend, suggesting that the short-term movement has outpaced the long-term trend. Bitcoin’s golden cross also aligns with other indicators (such as MACD), indicating an increased probability of price appreciation.
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