Market Divergence Remains Significant, Still in Oversold Recovery Phase.
(Background: Ethereum Leads, Is the “Altcoin Season” Coming Back? How Analysts View It)
(Background Supplement: DWF Labs Partner: Preparing to Purchase Various Altcoins, Planning to Form Strategic Reserves)
As favorable market policies continue to emerge, the overall cryptocurrency market has gradually warmed up, and altcoins are experiencing their “second spring.” Among them, meme coins have performed exceptionally well: According to OKX market data, the 24-hour price increases for MOODENG, GOAT, WIF, BOME, and MEW reached as high as 123.09%, 57.36%, 26.24%, 24.84%, and 22.64%, respectively. This surge, following the increases of BTC, ETH, and SOL, has led many diamond hands to exclaim, “It’s back, they’re all back!” while also watching their significantly retraced positions bleed. Regarding the future market direction, Odaily Planet Daily will summarize the recent driving factors behind the market’s rise and representative industry views for readers’ reference.
Macro Direct Favor: US-China Reaches Compromise, US Federal Reserve Signals Rate Cut Expectations
The recent surge in the overall market is undoubtedly directly attributed to the tariff and trade negotiations between the US and China. Additionally, benefiting from a series of maneuvers by Trump, the US Federal Reserve has softened its previously hardline stance in light of the potential for economic recession, leading to a sudden increase in rate cut expectations for this year. This favorable policy has caused the market to shift towards a bullish sentiment, with buying power quickly overpowering selling pressure.
US and China “Achieve Substantial Progress”
In the early hours of today, Beijing time, the White House announced that the US reached a trade agreement with China in Geneva. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson stated that the negotiations held in Geneva, Switzerland, lasted for two days and achieved “substantial progress.” Both parties expressed satisfaction with the negotiation results, believing that the differences were not as significant as imagined, and the agreement was reached quickly. US officials are optimistic about the agreement, believing it will help address the trade deficit issue. He Lifeng, the lead Chinese negotiator in US-China economic and trade relations and Vice Premier of the State Council, also stated during the news release that the high-level talks were candid, in-depth, constructive, and reached important consensus with substantial progress. Both sides unanimously agreed to establish a US-China economic and trade consultation mechanism.
After experiencing the previous “154% high tariff” debacle, the US and China have finally sat down to negotiate calmly again and achieved a phased consensus, undoubtedly providing a sense of reassurance for both countries’ economies and the cryptocurrency market.
US Federal Reserve Signals Rate Cut Likely This Year
On May 8, US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that under certain circumstances, a rate cut this year is appropriate, while in other circumstances, it is not; he could not confidently say he knows the appropriate path for interest rates. At that time, futures prices indicated a roughly 75% chance of a rate cut by July.
At the same time, Federal Reserve Governor Cook previously mentioned that both inflation and unemployment rates pose upward risks, and the economy might experience a slowdown in the short term; on the other hand, “the Fed’s mouthpiece” Nick Timiraos analyzed that Powell downplayed the expectation of alleviating economic weakness caused by Trump’s tariffs through rate cuts, indicating that the Fed would only consider rate cuts after seeing significant evidence of economic growth slowing, and it might involve rapid rate cuts.
Overall, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in the second half of this year has significantly increased, further repairing the previously oversold market sentiment.
Institutions Continue to Buy BTC: Public Companies Become Major Holders, BlackRock Surges Ahead
As the most notable group purchasing BTC in this cycle, public companies have become one of the fastest-growing holders in the cryptocurrency market; asset management institutions and ETF index funds are also in a rapid growth phase.
Metaplanet has recently increased its holdings by 1,241 BTC, valued at approximately $182 million.
The Japanese public company Metaplanet has increased its holdings by 1,241 BTC, valued at approximately $182 million. As of now, the company holds a total of 6,796 BTC, valued at around $704 million.
Strategy Continues to Buy, Annual Returns Exceed 14%
Michael Saylor, founder of Strategy, released information about the Bitcoin Tracker again last night. According to previous patterns, Strategy always discloses information about increasing Bitcoin holdings the day after related information is released.
On May 5, Strategy purchased 1,895 BTC at a price of $95,167 between April 28 and May 4 (total: $180.3 million). It also stated that as of May 4, 2025, the return on Bitcoin has reached 14.0%. As of May 4, 2025, it holds 555,450 BTC, with an average cost of $68,550, a total value of $38.08 billion.
Indian Public Company Jetking Enters BTC, Aiming for 18,000 Coins by 2030
Harsh Bharwani, CEO of Indian public company Jetking, previously stated that the company plans to gradually increase its BTC holdings through various financing tools, aiming to reach 18,000 coins by 2030. He revealed that within the next six months, they will raise funds to expand their holdings to about 180 BTC, and in the following year, the target is 1,800 BTC, completing the final holding plan by 2030.
BlackRock Recently Increased Holdings by 5,613 BTC, Total BTC Holdings Exceed 620,000
According to Lookonchain monitoring, on May 6, BlackRock increased its holdings by 5,613 BTC, valued at $529.5 million, bringing its total BTC holdings to over 620,000, reaching 620,252 BTC, valued at $58.51 billion. Since April 21, BlackRock has purchased a total of 47,064 BTC.
On May 7, it was reported that BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) ranked sixth in the US ETF fund inflows with a net inflow of $6.96 billion, surpassing the world’s largest gold ETF (GLD) with $6.5 billion.
New Developments: Futu Opens BTC, ETH, USDT Deposit Functions, Traditional Financial Applications Access Cryptocurrency System
Aside from the previously discussed buying power, the most noteworthy new variable in the cryptocurrency market recently is undoubtedly the “Futu APP opening BTC, ETH, USDT deposit functions as a traditional financial application.”
Futu Launches BTC, ETH, USDT Deposit Functions
Last week, Futu Securities International (Hong Kong) Limited announced the official launch of Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Tether (USDT) deposit services. Qualified investors can complete deposits and trade cryptocurrencies (“Crypto”) through the one-stop trading platform Futu Niu Niu, allowing them to invest in more asset classes or safely withdraw funds. Investors can easily engage with Crypto+TradFi assets (traditional financial assets, including Hong Kong, US, and Japanese stocks, options, ETFs, funds, bonds, and other diversified assets) through one app, allowing for quick transitions between virtual and traditional asset markets.
Is it Altcoin Season or Just a Fake Out? Market Divergence Remains Significant, Still in Oversold Recovery Phase
With BTC, ETH, and SOL experiencing recent surges followed by slight fluctuations and declines, enthusiasm for altcoin season in the cryptocurrency market has reignited. However, opinions among industry representatives regarding whether we are about to enter an altcoin season show significant divergence. Some believe that altcoins will continue to attract liquidity from mainstream coins like BTC and ETH, leading to increases; while others analyze that altcoins have already dropped 80%-90% from their highs earlier this year, and recent performance is merely a “dead cat bounce.”
Bullish Camp: Trader Eugene Predicts Strong Rebound for Altcoins
Last Saturday, trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio stated that although he correctly judged the direction of this rise, he faced premature stop-losses due to fluctuations, resulting in poor actual returns. Looking ahead, he noted that this rise to $100,000 confirmed the previous $90,000 support reversal, and the market is likely to challenge historical highs again. This was not originally expected, but funds from MicroStrategy and ETFs seem to be flowing in continuously.
In contrast, until yesterday, most old players in the crypto space were still observing (even shorting). With expectations of historical highs reigniting enthusiasm in the market, a strong rebound in the total market value of altcoins is anticipated.
Bullish Camp: Analyst Claims Mainstream Market Participants are Short-term Traders, Altcoin Season Has Arrived
Analyst 2 Lambroz believes that the peak season for altcoins may have arrived, but he noted that market dynamics have changed. “People want to buy in, but lack confidence in any strong narrative.” He pointed out that unlike in 2021, there are currently no signs of retail investors entering the market. The turnover of traders’ funds is faster, and there is almost no incentive to hold long positions. Technical trader Moustache’s view is more optimistic. He shared a chart showing that altcoins repeatedly experience accumulation phases, followed by explosive growth. According to his analysis, the current structure resembles that of 2016 and 2020. “The altcoin season of 2025 has officially begun.”
Neutral Camp: CryptoQuant Founder Admits Previous Judgment was Incorrect, Should Focus on Institutional Inflows
CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju stated that his judgment regarding the end of the BTC bull market two months ago was incorrect. Current on-chain data shows that selling pressure on BTC is easing, while institutional capital inflows from ETFs are significantly increasing, driving changes in market structure. He pointed out that in the past, the Bitcoin market was mainly composed of established whales, miners, and retail investors, making it easier to judge the cycle’s peak; however, now with the participation of ETFs, MicroStrategy, and institutional and governmental entities, the traditional logic of “whales offloading causing a peak” is becoming ineffective. Ki emphasized that in the new environment, more attention should be paid to the inflow of institutional incremental capital rather than old selling pressure signals.
Bearish Camp: Altcoins Down 90%, Golden Era is Still Far Off
At the same time, skeptics remain. Commentator Rekt Fencer pointed out that since last December, most altcoins have dropped 90%. This week’s 10% slight rebound has triggered excessive optimism, leading him to mock this rebound. “Is this the long-awaited golden era for altcoins?”
Summary: Slight Rebound in Meme Coins Does Not Indicate Altcoin Season Has Arrived
According to Coingecko data, BTC’s current market share remains close to 60%. Overall, it is still challenging to say that we have entered an altcoin season; rather, the previous term “Altcoin G” is more fitting, as the coins currently experiencing good momentum primarily exhibit “regional bull market” performance.
As Arthur Hayes stated in early May, “The most frequently asked question I get recently is, when will altcoin season come? And the answer is sometimes it’s right in front of you. HYPE.”
