Standard Chartered’s Long-Term Price Forecast for BTC: $200,000 by End of 2025, $500,000 by 2028.
(Background: Trump announces significant reduction of tariffs on China, will not dismiss Powell, Bitcoin approaches $94,000, U.S. stocks rise.)
(Context: Is a significant breakthrough in Bitcoin approaching? How various institutions and KOLs view the future market.)
Geoffrey Kendrick, Global Head of Crypto Asset Research at Standard Chartered, believes that despite BTC strengthening its position as a hedge in recent weeks, its price has yet to reflect the increasing signs of systemic risk. In a client report dated April 22, Kendrick warned that political pressures faced by the U.S. Federal Reserve are exacerbating tensions in the bond market, which may soon spread to the crypto asset market.
He noted that the premium on U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds has risen to its highest level in 12 years, indicating a market increasingly concerned about inflation, debt issuance, and particularly, the growing worries regarding the potential replacement of Jerome Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve. Kendrick stated, “The actions that threaten the independence of the Federal Reserve through the potential replacement of Powell fall squarely within the realm of government-related risks. BTC should soon reflect this shift.”
Kendrick categorizes BTC as a tool to hedge against two different types of systemic threats: one being private sector collapses, such as the failure of Silicon Valley Bank in 2023; the other being public sector credibility shocks, like central bank interventions or sovereign debt concerns. Kendrick emphasized that while BTC typically behaves as a risk asset under normal conditions, its true function emerges during macroeconomic pressure events. He added that the recent surge in premiums is an indicator of long-term inflation and interest rate risks, representing an environment where BTC historically re-establishes its hedging narrative.
Kendrick also pointed out a recent divergence: while the premium has surged significantly in recent weeks, BTC prices have stagnated below $100,000. He attributed this lag to investors temporarily focusing on trade-related concerns, including tariffs in the tech sector, which have dampened BTC’s response. He wrote, “Due to investors’ temporary focus on the underperformance of tech stocks, BTC has lagged behind the premium. However, when attention shifts back to central bank credibility issues, BTC will regain its hedging function.”
Despite short-term volatility, Kendrick reiterated Standard Chartered’s long-term price forecast for BTC: reaching $200,000 by the end of 2025 and $500,000 by 2028. He attributed this expected increase to macroeconomic pressures, improved structural investment channels through spot ETFs, and an increasingly mature derivatives market. Kendrick had previously modeled the growth of BTC’s share in an optimized gold-BTC portfolio, believing that as volatility decreases, it will support BTC prices rising in the future, especially in the context of ongoing expansion of institutional access under the current U.S. government leadership.
Kendrick stated, “This could be the condition needed to achieve the next historical high for BTC.”
