Traders Should Pay Attention to Financial Reports on AI Investment, Tariff Pressures, and Market Risks to Navigate Cryptocurrency Market Volatility
This article is sourced from Luke, written for Mars Finance, and republished by Foresight News.
(Previous Summary: Bitcoin Breaks 88,000, Reaches One-Month High! Trump Again Criticizes Powell, No Progress in US-Japan Negotiations, US Stocks Plunge)
(Background Supplement: US Stocks + US Dollar Decline, but US Treasury Yields Soar; Why Did The Economist Call This an Extremely Dangerous Signal?)
Introduction: The Calm Before the Storm of Tech Earnings Season
On April 21, 2025, the earnings season for US tech stocks will begin with a bang, and global markets hold their breath, especially cryptocurrency traders who are on edge. This week, over 120 companies from the S&P 500 will release their financial reports for the first quarter of fiscal year 2025 (January to March), with “The Magnificent Seven” including Tesla (April 22), Alphabet (April 24), and Intel (April 24) kicking off the earnings parade. Microsoft, Meta, and Broadcom (April 30), followed by Apple and Amazon (May 1), will take their turns, while NVIDIA is expected to close the show on May 28. This earnings feast is not only a focal point for Wall Street but also a stone thrown into the lake of the cryptocurrency market, creating ripples.
For crypto traders, tech stock earnings are not distant financial jargon, but rather a direct trigger affecting the prices of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). The fluctuations of US tech stocks influence the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices, and cryptocurrency assets often dance in tandem.
In the second quarter of 2020, strong earnings from Apple and Microsoft pushed the Nasdaq up 6.8%, allowing Bitcoin to break above $10,000; in the first quarter of 2022, Meta’s weak performance dragged the Nasdaq down 4.2%, causing Bitcoin to drop 15%.
The Trump administration’s upcoming semiconductor tariff policy adds a shadow to the market, with details expected to be announced before May 7, potentially raising chip costs and impacting Bitcoin mining hardware and blockchain infrastructure. Meanwhile, the US dollar index has fallen below 98, hitting a three-year low, and gold has soared to $3,400. Trump has threatened to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, leading the market to sense a signal for interest rate cuts—CME data shows a probability of over 75% for a rate cut in June. In this wave of safe-haven asset frenzy, Bitcoin has broken through $87,000, igniting traders’ enthusiasm. This week’s tech stock earnings will serve as a barometer for the crypto market, and traders must keep their eyes peeled to grasp the pulse.
Why Do Tech Earnings Affect the Crypto Market?
US tech stock earnings are like a mirror reflecting global economic dynamics, also stirring the nerves of the crypto market. For traders, these reports are not just barometers of corporate performance but also critical signals influencing position decisions. The following analysis covers four dimensions of their profound significance.
1. Resonance Between US Stocks and the Crypto Market
The Magnificent Seven—Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, NVIDIA, Meta, and Tesla—boast a total market capitalization of over $12.5 trillion, occupying nearly half of the Nasdaq 100 index. Their earnings reports directly influence the US stock market, while the crypto market is highly synchronized with US stocks. According to CoinDesk data, from 2020 to 2024, the average correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq index reached 0.75, with tech stock fluctuations serving as a conductor for crypto assets. In the second quarter of 2020, better-than-expected earnings from Apple and Microsoft propelled the Nasdaq up 6.8%, while Bitcoin surged 20% to break the $10,000 mark. Conversely, in the first quarter of 2022, Meta’s drop in advertising revenue led to a 4.2% plunge in the Nasdaq, causing Bitcoin to fall from $45,000 to $39,000. In the third quarter of 2024, weak earnings from NVIDIA and Amazon dragged the Nasdaq down 2.7%, with Ethereum dropping to $2,200. This week, the earnings reports from Tesla and Alphabet could stir the waters once more, and traders need to be alert to potential market chain reactions.
2. The Intersection of AI and Blockchain
AI and cloud computing serve as growth engines for tech giants, also injecting vitality into the blockchain and Web3 ecosystem. Revenue growth from Microsoft Azure, Amazon AWS, and Google Cloud reflects corporate enthusiasm for decentralized technologies (such as NFTs and DeFi). In June 2024, AWS revenue grew by 18.7%, and Google Cloud grew by 29%, but both figures fell short of expectations, dragging BTC and ETH down by 8% and 12%, respectively. This quarter, traders will focus on the monetization capabilities of AI (such as the corporate adoption rate of Microsoft Copilot and advancements in Google Gemini) and capital expenditures. In 2025, the Magnificent Seven’s AI investments are expected to reach $331 billion, potentially driving blockchain infrastructure development, such as on-chain AI models and decentralized computing markets. However, China’s low-cost AI model DeepSeek has raised market doubts about the returns on high-computing investments, leading to NVIDIA’s market cap evaporating by $590 billion on January 27, with Bitcoin dropping over 5% in a single day. ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood stated, “The rise of DeepSeek may suppress AI hardware demand, but decentralized computing remains a long-term potential.” Earnings reports will reveal the collaborative prospects between AI and blockchain, impacting crypto asset valuations.
3. Semiconductor Tariffs and Hardware Costs
Trump’s semiconductor tariff policy casts a shadow over the crypto market. On April 13, Trump announced that tariff rates would be disclosed the following week, with GPUs and chip manufacturing equipment facing a baseline tariff of 10%. The earnings reports from Intel, Broadcom, and NVIDIA will reflect supply chain pressures, potentially raising costs for Bitcoin mining hardware and blockchain servers. TSMC’s 2-nanometer chip costs could rise by 10-20% due to tariffs, increasing miner prices. MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor warned, “If tariffs raise GPU costs, Bitcoin miners’ profits will be pressured, which may drag down BTC prices in the short term.” Traders need to pay attention to Intel’s earnings report for signals regarding tariff responses and whether it mentions cost pressures on blockchain hardware.
4. Macroeconomic Turbulence and Risk Sentiment
The global operations of tech giants serve as a barometer for economic conditions, influencing risk sentiment in the crypto market. Apple’s iPhone sales and Tesla’s delivery numbers reflect consumer demand, while Meta and Alphabet’s advertising revenues gauge corporate confidence. Currently, the macroeconomic environment is increasingly turbulent: the US dollar index has fallen below 98, reaching a new low since March 2022, gold has surpassed $3,400, and Trump’s threats to fire Powell have sparked a crisis in the independence of the Federal Reserve. Although Republican Senator Kennedy has expressed support for central bank independence, CME data shows that the probability of a rate cut in June has exceeded 75%.
Bitcoin, as a “hard inflation asset,” has surged past $87,000, with Arthur Hayes lamenting, “This could be the last chance for BTC to stay below $100,000!” In the first quarter of 2022, Meta’s weak earnings report dragged the Nasdaq down, resulting in a 15% drop in Bitcoin; in 2020, strong performance from Microsoft lifted the market, allowing Bitcoin to surge. Citi strategist Scott Chronert pointed out that earnings reports will reveal the pricing extent of tariff and recession risks, providing key guidance for crypto traders.
The Under Currents of Trump’s Semiconductor Tariffs
The details of the Trump administration’s semiconductor tariff policy are expected to be announced by May 7 at the latest, likely covering chip manufacturing equipment, raw materials, and finished chips, raising costs for Intel, Broadcom, and NVIDIA, which will affect downstream companies like Apple and Microsoft. In January 2025, concerns over tariffs led to declines of 16% and 13% in NVIDIA and TSMC’s stock prices, respectively, while Bitcoin and Ethereum fell over 8% during the same period. For crypto traders, the impact of tariffs extends beyond stock fluctuations. Rising prices for Bitcoin mining hardware could compress miner profits and increase network difficulty; rising costs for blockchain servers could hinder the deployment of decentralized applications (dApps). Industry insiders analyze, “If tariffs raise GPU prices, small miners will exit, and BTC may face short-term pressure, but this will benefit centralized mining pools in the long run.”
The Potential Effects of Tariffs Include:
- Hardware Costs: 2-nanometer chip costs could rise by 10-20%, increasing prices for mining and blockchain devices.
- Supply Chain Adjustments: Companies may relocate production to the US, temporarily benefiting blockchain infrastructure stocks (such as Hut 8).
- Market Volatility: Unclear tariff guidelines may exacerbate cryptocurrency asset sell-offs, testing traders’ risk management.
This week’s earnings report from Intel will provide early signals of tariff impacts, while NVIDIA’s report on May 28 will further reveal strategies for AI chips and blockchain hardware. JPMorgan analyst Mark Murphy warned, “The uncertainty around tariffs may lead tech giants to adopt conservative guidance, and the crypto market should prepare for turbulence.”
The Macroeconomic Background of Earnings Season
1. DeepSeek and the Cold Reflections on the AI Boom
DeepSeek’s low-cost AI breakthrough has disrupted expectations for computing power reliance; on January 27, it led to a nearly $600 billion evaporation in NVIDIA’s market cap, with Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta collectively losing over $400 billion, while Bitcoin and Ethereum each dropped over 5% in a single day. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg stated he is exploring the integration of DeepSeek technology but requires more computing power. For crypto traders, the AI boom is closely tied to blockchain: decentralized computing platforms (such as Render Network) may benefit from the shift in AI investments. Cathie Wood predicts, “Blockchain will play a key role in AI infrastructure.” Earnings reports will test how giants balance AI investments with cost optimization, and NVIDIA’s guidance will directly impact blockchain computing stocks.
2. Valuations of the Magnificent Seven and Market Pressures
In 2025, the earnings growth of the Magnificent Seven is expected to slow to 18%, down from 34% in 2024. Microsoft and Meta have dropped over 10%, while Apple, Amazon, and NVIDIA have seen declines exceeding 20%, with Tesla plummeting more than 40%. InvestingPro models indicate that Tesla and Apple’s stock prices are above fair value. Wedbush predicts that tariff uncertainties will deter executives from providing clear guidance, potentially exacerbating sell-offs in the crypto market. If earnings reports fall short of expectations, Bitcoin could drop below $80,000, testing critical support levels.
Conclusion
The earnings season for US tech stocks resembles a storm sweeping through Wall Street, also shaking the cryptocurrency market. The performances of Tesla, Alphabet, and Intel will set the fate of the Magnificent Seven, while Trump’s semiconductor tariffs may reshape chip costs and blockchain hardware prices. Historically, tech stock earnings have repeatedly ignited or extinguished the enthusiasm of the crypto market: the rising tide of 2020 and the downturn of 2022 serve as reminders for traders—the earnings reports are a pulse that cannot be ignored.
The crypto market now stands at a crossroads amid the storm. The returns on AI investments, the resilience of the semiconductor supply chain, the heat of interest rate cut expectations, and the undercurrents of recession risks will all emerge in the earnings reports. Wedbush’s Dan Ives optimistically predicts, “The AI party has just begun.” However, Citi’s Scott Chronert cautions, “Earnings reports will reveal the truth about the risks.” Traders must closely monitor this week’s earnings reports and reassess their positions, capturing opportunities amidst the turbulent currents.
