Bitcoin Weekly RSI Hits New Low Since 2023 Bull Market Started, Analysts Predict $70,000 May Be the Potential Bottom for This Correction
(Background: Arthur Hayes: “Continuously adding Bitcoin during yesterday’s drop,” Altcoins have also entered my buying range)
(Context: Bitcoin rebounds, is $80,000 a buy point? Six indicators help you determine the bottom-fishing timing)
Bitcoin has recently experienced extreme price volatility, with market sentiment rapidly shifting between greed and fear. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), as a leading momentum indicator, is signaling noteworthy trends. Analyst Rekt Capital indicates that the price bottom for BTC/USD could occur near the historical high of approximately $70,000 set in 2021.
Possible Bottom at $70,000
Rekt believes that historical data has shown when Bitcoin’s daily RSI drops below the level of 28, it does not necessarily signal the final price bottom. In fact, the true price bottom is typically lower than the price at which the RSI first bottomed, falling between -0.32% to -8.44%. He also cautions investors that even when the RSI indicates a bottoming signal, the market may still experience further declines.
According to Rekt Capital’s calculations, Bitcoin is currently forming a second low, approximately 2.79% lower than the price at which the RSI first bottomed. If historical patterns repeat, in a worst-case scenario (i.e., a decline of 8.44%), Bitcoin’s price bottom may land around $70,000. This price level also aligns closely with the peak of the 2021 bull market, suggesting significant historical reference value since Bitcoin has never surpassed the previous bull market high.
What Does the RSI Indicate?
According to current RSI data, as of the time of writing, it hovers around 34. The industry typically considers levels below 30 as “oversold,” suggesting a potential price rebound. On April 7, the RSI briefly dropped to 19, followed by a rebound, indicating that the last instance when the RSI fell below 30 indeed led to a recovery.
On April 8, the RSI touched the neutral line at 50 before retreating, showcasing a weakening of short-term buying momentum. Notably, the weekly RSI currently stands at around 43, marking the lowest reading since the onset of this bull market in early 2023. Although the weekly RSI has not yet entered the “oversold” zone below 30, its continued decline and new lows indicate a significant cooling of medium to long-term buying momentum, suggesting the market is undergoing a substantial correction.
Rekt Capital also believes that even if the price does not precisely touch $70,000, a long-term bottom could still form.
Based on the historical trend of the daily RSI during this cycle, any price point between the current level and approximately $70,000 could potentially serve as the bottom for this correction.
Adverse Macroeconomic Factors
As for whether Bitcoin may once again dip down to the “theoretical bottom” of $70,000, this depends on the broader economic situation. Currently, the overall economy is experiencing a historically rare phase where stocks, bonds, and currencies are all declining simultaneously in the U.S., indicating that the market can no longer avoid losses through asset allocation, with expectations of an overall economic recession.
In this context, Bitcoin, as a highly volatile digital asset, is likely to face another significant drop before bonds and the dollar stabilize. Thus, the crypto market urgently needs to monitor macroeconomic indicators. Even if Bitcoin faces a substantial decline, it is likely to be one of the assets that high-risk investors position in first as signs of market stabilization emerge.
Moreover, stepping away from the U.S. market, many experts have cautioned that the recent potential depreciation of the Chinese yuan could be another tailwind for Bitcoin’s rebound. Overall, in light of the U.S.-China tariff war, Bitcoin will be significantly influenced by intense geopolitical dynamics.
Related Reports
Twitter founder Jack Dorsey: Bitcoin “if not used for daily payments” will merely be a store of value and will fail.
Bitcoin down 32%, are companies buying BTC as reserves still alive? Future concerns over the MicroStrategy imitation trend.
Trump postpones tariff confusion; Bitcoin spikes to $81,000, U.S. stocks soar, Fed’s May rate cut expectations surge.
