Recent “End of the Bull Market” Pessimism Spreads, But Analyst PlanB Disagrees, Believes Real Bull Market Is Yet to Come and Bitcoin Could Surge to $160,000 in 2025
(Background: Bitcoin Breaks $87,000 | Fed’s Powell: April Rate Hike Pause, Two Rate Cuts Expected This Year, Rates Unchanged… 5 Key Highlights)
(Additional Background: CryptoQuant CEO: Bitcoin Bull Market Has Ended, On-chain Data Shows Bearish Trend, 50x Insider Whales Starting to Short BTC)
The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) announced on the 20th after its March FOMC rate decision meeting that it would again keep interest rates unchanged. However, the latest dot plot reveals that Fed officials maintain the expectation of two rate cuts in 2025, without lowering the number of cuts.
After the meeting, gold reached a historic high of $3,036, while stock markets and risk assets like cryptocurrency saw rare increases, showing a clear divergence in market reactions to risk aversion. Bitcoin surged 4.6% this morning, reaching a high of $87,446, and as of the time of writing, it was at $85,886, having increased nearly 3.5% in the past 24 hours.
PlanB: Real Bull Market Has Not Yet Started, Bitcoin’s Target for This Year Is $160,000
Recently, due to Trump’s tariff policies increasing global economic uncertainty, pessimistic expectations of a “U.S. recession” and “end of the bull market, beginning of the bear market” have spread across the market.
However, well-known cryptocurrency analyst PlanB, who proposed the Bitcoin S2F model, remains optimistic about the market. He tweeted today that he disagrees with those who believe the cycle is turning to a bear market.
He pointed out that the arithmetic mean and geometric mean of Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average have been very close to each other for over a year, indicating that volatility is decreasing and steadily increasing. He emphasized that a real bear market (when the arithmetic mean and geometric mean converge) will only occur after a true bull market (when they diverge). Therefore, he believes the “real bull market has not yet appeared.”
Bitcoin Breaks the 4-Year Bull and Bear Cycle
PlanB also mentioned that Bitcoin could break the traditional 4-year market cycle.
Bitcoin doubled from $20,000 to $40,000 in 2023, and is expected to double again from $40,000 to $80,000 in 2024. If this stable upward trend continues, Bitcoin could double again to $160,000 in 2025, reach $320,000 in 2026, and hit $640,000 in 2027. This would mean the end of the 4-year cycle, which is earlier than he expected but aligns with more mature market characteristics.
CryptoQuant: Bitcoin Could Enter Bear Market or Consolidate for 6-12 Months
However, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju holds the opposite view. He tweeted on the 18th: “The Bitcoin bull market is over, and we expect the market to enter a bear or consolidation phase for the next 6 to 12 months.”
Despite indicators still being at critical levels over the past two years, he had been predicting the bull market would arrive. He apologized for changing his view, stating it is now clear that we are entering a bear market.
He noted that indicators based on realized market capitalization show a lack of new liquidity, and despite huge trading volumes, prices have not risen. ETF fund inflows have been negative for three consecutive weeks. While he does not plan to short Bitcoin, he cannot continue to share his hopes when the data shows increasingly bearish signals.
In response to a follower asking why he doesn’t short BTC, he clarified that he means it may take 6 to 12 months to break the ATH (all-time high), not that we are facing a -70% crash.
He added that new liquidity pipelines and reduced contagion risks make large declines less likely, and a price consolidation in a broader range seems more probable.
#Bitcoinbull cycle is over, expecting 6–12 months of bearish or sideways price action.
