Santiment today pointed out that the available supply of ETH on exchanges has decreased by 16.4% in just 7 weeks, dropping to 8.97 million, marking a near 10-year low. Meanwhile, the leveraged long positions in Bitcoin on Bitfinex have risen to 80,333 BTC, valued at approximately $6.92 billion, reaching a new high in nearly six months. Is the bull market about to restart?
(Background: Trump’s cryptocurrency conference speech was “completely unremarkable,” with Bitcoin briefly dropping below $84,000 amid tariff concerns causing US stocks to close in the red.)
(Context: Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin may have bottomed at $77,000, but US stocks need to continue falling to force Powell to print money… Hold cash.)
On the 19th, Arkham monitoring data showed that TRON founder Justin Sun added $100 million worth of staked Ethereum. With current yield estimates, this staking could generate approximately $3 million in passive income annually, sparking heated discussions in the community.
Today, on-chain data platform Santiment reported that due to numerous DeFi and staking options, more and more Ethereum is being removed from exchanges, causing the available supply of Ethereum on exchanges to drop to 8.97 million, the lowest amount in nearly 10 years (the lowest since November 2015). In just 7 weeks, the Ethereum stock on exchanges has decreased by 16.4%, which may indicate an increasing willingness for long-term holding and ecological participation.
Meanwhile, as of March 20, the leveraged long positions in Bitcoin on Bitfinex have risen to 80,333 BTC, valued at approximately $6.92 billion, marking a new six-month high. Since February 20, leveraged longs have increased by 27.5%, correlating with Bitcoin’s 12.5% rise from its low of $76,700 on March 11. However, experts warn that this rebound is driven by leverage and may not be sustainable.
Historical data shows that an increase in leveraged longs does not necessarily drive prices up. For instance, in July and September 2024, there were spikes in leveraged positions but prices declined. Some large traders may still profit, but their risk tolerance and operational capabilities are far higher than those of the average investor.
Additionally, the current low cost of borrowing Bitcoin (annualized at only about 3.14%) provides opportunities for neutral arbitrage in the market. For example, the interest rate differential between spot and perpetual contracts (funding rate at 4.5%) can be profited from through a “spot + short futures” strategy, indicating that some positions may be of an arbitrage nature rather than purely bullish.
Even if we assume that the $1.48 billion leveraged long position on Bitfinex is primarily bullish, data from other exchanges shows differing market sentiment. For example, the demand for Bitcoin leveraged longs on OKX significantly declined in the same 30 days, with a long-short ratio of only 15, the lowest in over three months.
Historically, when market sentiment is overly optimistic, the long-short ratio on OKX has surged above 40 (the last instance was at the end of February when BTC broke through $105,000); conversely, a ratio below 5 often reflects strong bearish sentiment. While the current ratio is not extremely pessimistic, it indicates hesitation and divergence in the market regarding Bitcoin’s upward momentum.
Despite large investors like Justin Sun actively deploying ETH assets and the continuous rise of leveraged longs on Bitfinex, overall market sentiment has not fully turned optimistic. One reason is the Federal Reserve’s inflation and economic forecasts released on March 19, which are relatively pessimistic, predicting persistent high inflation and slowing economic growth, raising concerns about potential recession and global trade wars.
These macro uncertainties have led investors to adopt more conservative strategies. Even though whales are increasing their positions, it may not quickly ignite a comprehensive bull market, and caution is still necessary in the short term.
Meanwhile, cryptocurrency research firm CryptoQuant noted that the Bitcoin Bull Score is currently only 20, the lowest in two years, contrasting with the historical trend that indicates strong rallies only occur when the score is above 60. The current score remains in a weak range.
